Diplomatic Breakthrough? Biden and Macron Push for Lebanon Ceasefire Amid Escalating Conflict

U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon imminently, according to four senior Lebanese sources. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that while a deal is close, "nothing is done until everything is done." 

The French presidency has also reported significant progress in negotiations, with Israeli officials indicating that the country's cabinet will meet to approve a truce deal with Hezbollah in the coming days. Despite these diplomatic efforts, Israel's military continues to strike Hezbollah-controlled areas in Beirut, maintaining pressure on the group as the conflict, which began in October 2023, escalates.

The ceasefire proposal, which would see an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the deployment of Lebanese army troops in the region, has made notable strides. However, significant obstacles remain, particularly over monitoring compliance with the truce. A breakthrough came with the establishment of a five-nation monitoring committee, including France and chaired by the United States, aimed at ensuring the ceasefire is respected. Lebanon's Deputy Parliament Speaker, Elias Bou Saab, confirmed that there are "no serious obstacles" to the ceasefire's implementation, barring any last-minute changes from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The situation on the ground, however, remains tense, with both sides continuing their military operations despite the diplomatic progress. Over the weekend, Israel's airstrikes on Beirut killed at least 29 people, while Hezbollah launched a massive rocket attack on northern Israel, killing 45 civilians and several Israeli soldiers. As of Monday, Israeli airstrikes continued to target Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut, resulting in further casualties. More than 3,750 people have died in the conflict, with over a million displaced, reflecting the severe toll of the ongoing violence.

While there is cautious optimism surrounding the proposed ceasefire, significant mistrust between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as political divisions within Israel, complicate the situation. The Biden administration is pressing for a resolution, not only in Lebanon but also as a potential leverage point in broader Middle East peace efforts, including ending hostilities in Gaza. However, Israel’s right-wing government, led by Netanyahu, faces internal opposition, with figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir pushing for continued military action, warning against halting the war until achieving "absolute victory." This political tension highlights the challenges facing the fragile diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the conflict.