"Myanmar's Arakan Army: A New Security Concern for Bangladesh "

India’s relationship with the interim government in Bangladesh, led by Muhammad Yunus, remains strained. This administration, which assumed power on August 8 with military backing, replaced the elected government led by Sheikh Hasina.

The interim regime has faced criticism for severe actions against minorities in several regions, contrasting with Sheikh Hasina’s inclusive governance. While Bangladesh previously enjoyed cordial ties with India, its growing proximity to Pakistan and China is a notable shift in the region's geopolitical dynamics.

Myanmar Border Developments Raise Concerns

Bangladesh is facing a growing challenge from Myanmar as the rebel Arakan Army has captured approximately 271 kilometers of territory along the shared border. This territory, seized from Myanmar’s military junta, lies alarmingly close to Bangladesh’s St. Martin’s Island, raising potential security concerns

Arakan Army: An Armed Force of Rakhine Buddhists

The Arakan Army, a Buddhist-majority armed group operating in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, was established on April 10, 2009, as the military wing of the United League of Arakan. This organization is fighting for autonomy and the liberation of the Arakan population, which comprises over 5% of Myanmar's population.

Since the military takeover in Myanmar in 2021, the Arakan Army has emerged as a key player in the “Three Brotherhood Alliance,” a coalition opposing the junta. With an estimated 40,000 fighters, the group has been active in regions bordering China and Myanmar.

On December 20, the Arakan Army announced its complete control over significant areas in Rakhine state, marking its second major victory against the Myanmar military in five months. These developments pose challenges to India and China, given their strategic infrastructure projects in Rakhine, including the Sittwe port, which is now almost completely isolated

Strategic Implications for Regional Players

China, which has reportedly supported rebel groups to maintain regional instability, faces setbacks due to these developments. Meanwhile, India’s strategic concerns are heightened, particularly regarding its northeastern states like Mizoram and Meghalaya.

In this context, K. Vanlalvena, a Rajya Sabha MP from Mizoram, recently engaged with members of the Arakan Army as part of discussions related to the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Project. While Vanlalvena urged the group to avoid disrupting the project, India dismissed allegations of direct involvement, reaffirming its commitment to restoring democracy in Myanmar.

The Arakan Army’s recent advances have also displaced hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas, many of whom have sought refuge in Bangladesh. This raises concerns about the possibility of the group extending its activities into regions of Bangladesh already grappling with the persecution of minorities.

India now faces the complex task of assessing how these regional developments could impact its northeastern territories and broader strategic interests.