Pakistan’s Water Crisis Deepens as India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty

 Pakistan is facing a severe water crisis, with river flows plummeting across the country following India’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance on April 23. The suspension of the decades-old water-sharing agreement has led to sharply reduced water inflows in Pakistan’s three major regions—Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—intensifying fears of widespread agricultural distress in the ongoing Kharif season.

According to official data reviewed by CNN-News18, the cumulative river flow in Pakistan as of June 20 has declined by nearly 20% compared to the same period last year. In Punjab, river flow stands at 110,500 cusecs—down from 130,800 cusecs in 2023. Sindh has recorded a similar decline, with current flow levels at 133,000 cusecs, compared to 170,000 cusecs last year. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the drop is smaller but significant, from 2,900 to 2,600 cusecs.

The Kharif season, which runs from June to September and is critical for rice, cotton, and sugarcane cultivation, now faces a growing threat as reservoir levels drop and irrigation channels run dry. Pakistan had earlier projected a 21% water shortage during the season—a prediction that is now rapidly materializing.

India’s move to suspend the IWT is part of a broader strategic recalibration. New Delhi is reportedly advancing plans to re-engineer river systems by linking the waters of the Indus and Chenab rivers with the Beas through a proposed 160-kilometre tunnel aimed at diverting water to central India, as far as Gangasagar. If completed, the project could significantly reduce water availability for Pakistan, further straining its already vulnerable agricultural sector.

Islamabad has formally raised its concerns through four diplomatic communiqués, urging India to reconsider its stance and restore the treaty. However, New Delhi has remained firm. Citing national security concerns and long-standing grievances over cross-border militancy, India has reiterated that the treaty will remain suspended. A senior Indian official underscored this policy shift with a blunt declaration: “Water and blood cannot flow together.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking in Gujarat on May 27, addressed the matter directly. “The people of India have a rightful claim to their water,” he said. “We have only just begun. We’ve kept the treaty in abeyance and started the process of clearing silt by opening the dam slightly. They are already afraid, and we are only getting started.”

Modi also criticised the original terms of the Indus Waters Treaty, which was brokered by the World Bank in 1960 and has been lauded globally for its longevity despite political tensions. Under the treaty, India was given control of the eastern rivers—Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej—while Pakistan was allocated the western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. Limited usage rights were granted to each party for non-consumptive purposes such as hydroelectricity.

“The agreement was heavily skewed,” Modi said. “The treaty even dictated that the cleaning and desilting of dams in Jammu and Kashmir would not be done. The downstream gates remained shut for 60 years. Reservoirs that should have stored 100% capacity were reduced to just 2–3%.”

With the monsoon now becoming Pakistan’s last hope for short-term relief, the country is bracing for prolonged water scarcity that could trigger not only agricultural losses but also social and political unrest in the months ahead.