Chile Raises Copper Price Outlook Amid Supply Constraints, Maintains Growth Forecast

 Santiago, July 24 — Chile, the world’s leading copper exporter, revised its 2025 copper price outlook upward on Wednesday, even as supply disruptions from one of its key mines tempered broader economic expectations.

Finance Minister Mario Marcel, addressing Congress, announced an increase in the government’s average copper price projection for the year to $4.28 per pound, up slightly from the previous estimate of $4.26. The revision reflects sustained global demand and heightened market volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainty.

Despite the stronger price forecast, Marcel affirmed the government’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2025 at 2.5%, noting that resilience in the non-mining sectors had largely offset weaker performance in mining.

“In recent months, we’ve observed a slowdown in copper output, primarily due to reduced production at the Collahuasi mine,” Marcel said. Collahuasi is jointly operated by global mining giants Glencore and Anglo American.

The decline in Collahuasi’s output has emerged as a significant drag on Chile’s overall mining activity, although other sectors have shown encouraging signs of recovery and expansion.

Earlier in the day, the chairman of Codelco, Chile’s state-owned mining company and the world’s largest copper producer, told Reuters that newly announced 50% U.S. tariffs on copper imports, effective August 1, have contributed to elevated price levels. The looming duties, coupled with broader global uncertainties, have led to significant price fluctuations in recent weeks.

Looking ahead, Chile’s finance ministry held steady its copper price forecast for 2026 at $4.30 per pound, alongside unchanged inflation and GDP growth estimates for both this year and next.

As global demand for critical minerals accelerates in support of the green energy transition, Chile’s copper market remains a pivotal bellwether for commodity markets and emerging economy performance.