Russia Confident of Sustaining Oil Supplies to India Despite Western Sanctions

Russia on Wednesday dismissed concerns that sanctions and tariffs imposed by the United States and European Union (EU) would disrupt its oil exports to India, with senior officials insisting that Moscow has developed “special mechanisms” to bypass punitive measures introduced by the Donald Trump administration.

At a media briefing in New Delhi, Russian chargé d’affaires Roman Babushkin stressed that Moscow remains India’s “partner of choice” in defence and energy. He confirmed that President Vladimir Putin will travel to India later this year for the annual bilateral summit, with dates to be finalised.

Oil Trade Resilient Amid Sanctions

India is now Russia’s second-largest energy customer after China, with Russian crude accounting for nearly 40% of India’s oil imports. Purchases surged after Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S. is set to impose a 25% punitive tariff on Indian exports beginning August 28, citing India’s continued oil trade with Russia. This will be in addition to a 25% reciprocal tariff already announced.

Despite this, Babushkin and Russia’s deputy trade commissioner Evgeny Griva expressed confidence that energy flows would remain stable.
“Despite the political situation, we can predict that the level of crude oil imports will remain approximately the same,” Griva said. “There are mechanisms to ensure supply, but we cannot disclose them as they are very special.”

Babushkin added that oil deliveries to the Vadinar refinery in Gujarat—jointly owned by Russian giant Rosneft and an investment consortium—remain unaffected by recent EU sanctions. The refinery, in which Rosneft holds a 49.13% stake, is India’s second-largest single-site refinery with an annual capacity of 20 million metric tonnes (MMT).

Russia, officials noted, has adapted shipping and insurance arrangements to counter EU restrictions, reducing its reliance on Western service providers. Acknowledging that oil prices may swing by up to 5% due to sanctions and tariffs, they maintained that negotiations would help cushion the impact.

Bilateral Trade and Future Targets

India-Russia trade reached a record $68.7 billion in 2024–25, though India’s exports accounted for just $4.88 billion, leaving a trade imbalance of nearly $60 billion.

Babushkin said Russia is working to correct this disparity:
“We will remove trade barriers, facilitate business-to-business interaction, and expand alternative logistics corridors. Strengthening payment and settlement systems will also be a priority.”

Both sides remain confident of achieving the target of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030, with annual growth averaging around 10%.

Defence Cooperation: “Partner of Choice”

Against the backdrop of criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump and senior American officials over India’s continued purchase of Russian military hardware, Babushkin emphasised that Moscow remains New Delhi’s “partner of choice” in defence.

He pointed to the BrahMos missile project, jointly developed since 1998, and the deployment of Russian-origin systems during Operation Sindoor in May, when India targeted terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack.

According to Russian officials, the operation validated the effectiveness of the S-400 air defence system, the Su-30 combat jet, and the BrahMos missile, with the S-400 reportedly used to shoot down a Pakistani surveillance aircraft at a range of 300 km.

Babushkin also confirmed Russia’s expected participation in India’s long-range air defence initiative, the Sudarshan Chakra, unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day speech. The system, intended to protect major cities and critical infrastructure, is slated to be operational by 2035.