Trump–Putin Alaska Summit: Ceasefire Prospects Uncertain Amid Last-Minute Nuclear Proposal

 Anchorage, Alaska – U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to hold high-stakes talks on Friday at a Cold War-era air force base in Alaska, with hopes for a breakthrough on Ukraine tempered by uncertainty. While a ceasefire agreement remains elusive, Putin has floated a last-minute proposal for a potential nuclear arms deal — a move that could offer both leaders a political win.

The meeting, scheduled for 11:00 a.m. Alaska time (1900 GMT), marks the first face-to-face encounter between the two leaders since Trump’s return to the White House. It comes amid concerns in Kyiv and European capitals that Trump could make concessions undermining Ukraine’s position.

Trump, who has previously vowed to end the conflict “within 24 hours,” acknowledged on Thursday that the three-and-a-half-year war has proven more intractable than anticipated. He suggested that if talks with Putin progress, a subsequent three-way summit involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy — notably absent from Friday’s meeting — could be even more consequential.

The U.S. president has been pushing for a truce, partly to bolster his image as a global peacemaker and Nobel Peace Prize contender. European allies took some reassurance from a Wednesday conference call in which Trump reportedly agreed Ukraine must be party to any negotiations over territorial concessions, and supported post-war security guarantees — though he has not made those commitments publicly.

For Putin, whose war economy is feeling the strain of tightening Western sanctions, the meeting presents an opportunity to seek relief or at least prevent new measures threatened by Trump. On the eve of the summit, the Kremlin leader dangled the prospect of a new nuclear arms control agreement to replace the last remaining treaty, due to expire in February next year.

Tentative Common Ground
Trump expressed confidence on Thursday that Putin is open to a deal on Ukraine, though his optimism has fluctuated. Putin, for his part, praised Washington’s “sincere efforts” to end the war. A source close to the Kremlin told Reuters that “some terms” appear to have been tentatively agreed, citing sanctions pressure as a driving factor.

Analysts believe Putin may seek a phased truce — potentially suspending aerial strikes — while preserving the ability to escalate at will. “If they can craft a ceasefire that leaves Russia in control of escalation dynamics, without real deterrence in place, that would be a win for Putin,” said Sam Greene, Director of Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Sticking Points
Zelenskiy has accused Putin of bluffing to buy time and avoid further U.S. sanctions, and has ruled out any territorial concessions. Trump has suggested that land transfers could help break the deadlock, a position that aligns with some of Moscow’s aims.

Putin’s conditions for a full ceasefire include:

• Complete Russian control over the Donbas region, including Donetsk and Luhansk (around 25% of Donetsk remains under Ukrainian control)

• Full control of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions

• A permanent bar on NATO membership for Ukraine

• Limits on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces

Kyiv has rejected these terms as tantamount to capitulation. With both sides standing firm, Friday’s talks may produce diplomatic optics rather than substantive progress — unless Putin’s nuclear proposal can shift the calculus.