US–Iran Ceasefire Talks Face Uncertainty Amid Deep Divisions Over Lebanon and Nuclear Issue

Peace negotiations between Iran and the United States, scheduled to take place in Islamabad, are facing significant uncertainty even before their formal commencement, as deep divisions persist over Lebanon and Tehran’s nuclear programme.

The talks, to be led on the American side by Vice President JD Vance, come nearly six weeks after a major escalation in hostilities, during which U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted Iran. The conflict reportedly resulted in thousands of casualties, severe regional disruption, and the closure of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz—triggering a sharp surge in global oil prices.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reportedly killed during the escalation, marking a turning point in the conflict and intensifying geopolitical tensions across West Asia.

Earlier this week, a two-week ceasefire agreement brokered by Pakistan offered a temporary pause in hostilities. However, the truce is already showing signs of strain. Iran has warned that continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon could derail the peace process entirely.

The Iranian delegation to the Islamabad talks will be led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. According to officials, both delegations are expected to remain in separate rooms at the Serena Hotel, with Pakistani mediators facilitating indirect discussions between the two sides.

Lebanon has emerged as a central point of contention. Tehran insists that any ceasefire must include a halt to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, while Washington and Israel maintain that the current truce does not extend to that front.

The situation has been further aggravated by recent Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, described as among the most intense in the ongoing conflict, reportedly resulting in over 200 deaths. In response, Tehran has warned that it may withdraw from negotiations if the bombardment continues.

With tensions running high and key issues unresolved, the prospects for a durable ceasefire remain uncertain, as diplomatic efforts struggle to keep pace with rapidly evolving developments on the ground.