DUBLIN: Housing output is up nearly 60% from pre-Covid levels

DUBLIN:The number of new homes completed in the second quarter of 2022 was 53.4 per cent higher than the same period last and year and 58.5 per cent ahead of the second quarter of 2019, before the pandemic.

Apartment completions in Dublin, which has seen a large increase in investment for build-to-rent units, were mostly responsible for the increase, Central Statistics Office (CSO) data indicates. 

Between April and June 2022, 7,654 new homes were constructed, which is more than any other period since records began in 2011. This is an increase from 4,490 during the same time period in 2021, when the construction industry was still severely hampered by public health regulations. Additionally, it indicates a significant 58.5 percent gain before the April to June 2019 period.

3,905 (51%) of the total number of new homes finished in the second quarter were housing scheme units, 2,415 (31.6%) were apartments, and 1,334 (17.4%) were single-family homes. Apartment completions soared by 88% in the year to the end of June, while housing scheme output jumped by 53.3% and single unit completions increased by 15.1% during that time.

Dublin's housing output increased by the most (786.6%) in the year that ended in June. With 1,042 completed housing units, nearly 95% of which were apartments, Dublin City had the most local authority-level completions, followed by Dn Laoghaire-Rathdown with 674 and Fingal County Council with 590. More than two-thirds of all completions in the quarter were apartments across the county.

Nine of the ten Local Electoral Areas with the most completions in the quarter were in Dublin, with the most completions in Ballyfermot-Drimnagh, the CSO said. More than three quarters.

The southwest, mideast, Midwest, and the Midlands witnessed an increase in housing output over the time period, making up seven of the eight regions. Only the southeast, where completions decreased 9.2% over the past year to June 30, saw a drop.

The data, according to Property Industry Ireland, the Ibec group that represents the building sector, demonstrate the "magnitude of the sector's reaction" to the housing need.

Director of the group Dr. David Duffy noted, "However, the new home delivery environment is getting increasingly complex." "The viability of future delivery has been impacted by the sharp increase in raw material prices. The most recent Census revealed that population growth has outpaced expectations. This requires a rapid revision of housing targets, especially in our county development plans and land zoning.

The CSO findings are consistent with information from EY's Thursday-released GeoDirectory Residential Buildings Report, which showed that both the residential and commercial construction sectors have recovered significantly from the epidemic. According to the report, there were 18.4% more buildings under construction in than during the same time period in 2021, with 17.4% of those structures being in Dublin, 14.2% in Kildare, and 12% in Cork.

Approximately 23,500 housing units are expected to be finished this year, followed by 27,000 and 31,000 in 2023 and 2024, according to the Central Bank. Due to the impact of drastically rising building material prices and labour difficulties, this is a 5,000 fall from its original prediction for this year.

Nevertheless, BNP Paribas Real Estate anticipates the number to be closer to 28,000 in 2022 — a rise of more than 30% year over year — despite a steep decline in construction activity in June.

According to John McCartney, director and head of research at BNP Paribas Real Estate, "the main forecasting bodies have a relatively poor record forecasting house completions, especially at short projection horizons." He also said that the Central Bank's forecast is "very pessimistic." According to him, the most recent CSO data supports this finding, and with 13,316 homes delivered in the first half of 2022, the industry is "well on target for 28,000 completions in 2022."

A residential construction site in Dublin, which saw the largest number of apartment completions nationwide in the second quarter. Photographer: Paulo Nunes dos Santos/Bloomberg