Arakan Army Claims Full Control of Key Border District, Pressures Myanmar Junta

Rakhine State, Myanmar: The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group in Myanmar, has declared complete control over Maungdaw, a strategically significant district bordering Bangladesh, escalating challenges for the ruling military junta. The announcement, made late Tuesday, underscores the growing territorial dominance of the AA, which has waged an intensified campaign in the region since breaking a ceasefire last year.

The AA claimed its fighters captured the last junta base near Maungdaw town on Sunday after nearly two months of fighting, detaining several soldiers, including the base commander. In a video released by the group, individuals identified as Myanmar security forces were seen emerging from damaged buildings with white flags, signaling surrender. While independent verification of these claims is pending, the development highlights the deteriorating position of the junta in Rakhine State.

Strategic Significance of Maungdaw

Maungdaw district, home to over 110,000 people, lies on the Naf River, separating Myanmar from Bangladesh. It is a region of immense geopolitical importance due to its proximity to key infrastructure projects supported by China and India. The AA’s control over the district could disrupt trade routes and impact regional economic initiatives.

The state capital, Sittwe, remains largely cut off due to the AA’s territorial advances, further diminishing the junta’s control over the region.

Escalation in Rakhine State

The AA’s resurgence follows the collapse of a ceasefire agreement in November 2022, which had held since Myanmar’s 2021 coup. The group has steadily expanded its influence in Rakhine State, previously claiming control over Buthidaung town, located 25 kilometers from Maungdaw.

However, the AA’s actions have drawn criticism. Rohingya diaspora groups have accused the group of forcing Rohingya communities to flee and looting their homes—a charge the AA has dismissed as propaganda.

Humanitarian Crisis Looms

The ongoing conflict has plunged Rakhine State into a severe economic and humanitarian crisis. According to a recent report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the region is at risk of famine by mid-2025 if current levels of food insecurity persist.

"Rakhine's economy has stopped functioning," the UN report stated, citing disrupted commerce and agriculture as the primary causes. The conflict has displaced thousands, with limited access to humanitarian aid compounding the suffering of civilians.

A Rising Force: The Arakan Army

The Arakan Army, founded in 2009, has emerged as one of Myanmar’s most formidable ethnic armed groups. Under the leadership of Major General Twan Mrat Naing, the AA has transitioned from a guerrilla force to a well-organized military entity. Its primary aim is to achieve greater autonomy for the Rakhine people, advocating for federalism and local control over the state’s resources.

The group’s strategy includes not only military operations but also efforts to control economic and trade routes, effectively asserting its governance over captured territories.

Geopolitical Implications

The AA’s territorial gains along the Bangladesh border have implications beyond Myanmar’s internal conflict.

For Bangladesh: The group’s dominance near refugee camps housing hundreds of thousands of Rohingya could destabilize border security.

For Regional Powers: Control over Rakhine State could affect projects such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, both of which rely on stability in the region.

Junta’s Silence and Rising Criticism

The Myanmar junta has not commented on the fall of Maungdaw or the AA’s claims. However, opposition figures have used the military's failure to secure key territories as a point of criticism.

Amid these developments, the AA’s rise signals a shift in Myanmar’s internal conflict dynamics, leaving the junta battling multiple fronts as it struggles to maintain control across the nation.

As tensions escalate, the humanitarian toll in Rakhine State remains a growing concern, with civilians caught in the crossfire of territorial battles and political ambitions.