✍🏻Unni Thalakkasseri
As the war in Ukraine surpasses two and a half years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has emerged as one of the most influential figures in global politics. Initially dismissed by many, the evolving geopolitical landscape, marked by divisions in Ukraine, the United States, and Europe, has tilted in Russia’s favor. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, once buoyed by strong Western support, now faces mounting challenges, while Putin steadily advances towards his strategic objectives.
At the onset of the invasion in 2022, many political analysts deemed Russia’s move a strategic blunder. However, with the war dragging on, it has become evident that Putin’s calculations were far from erroneous. The diminishing U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s defense, growing divisions among European nations, and the prolonged conflict’s toll on Zelensky’s global standing have all contributed to Russia’s strengthened position.
1. Ukraine’s NATO Membership Blocked
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), founded in 1949, is an international military alliance initially comprising 12 member states, now expanded to over 30. NATO’s core principle, collective defense under Article 5, has historically positioned it as a counterforce to Soviet—and later Russian—influence. Following the Cold War, NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe heightened tensions with Russia, culminating in Ukraine’s NATO aspirations becoming a flashpoint for conflict.
Russia has long viewed Ukraine’s NATO membership as a direct threat to its security. The invasion itself was partly a preemptive measure to prevent Ukraine from joining the alliance. As of today, Ukraine’s NATO ambitions remain stalled—a significant strategic victory for Putin. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has already indicated his opposition to Ukraine’s NATO accession, further weakening Kyiv’s security prospects and reinforcing Russia’s position.
2. The Fragmentation of Ukraine
Putin’s broader objective is to dismantle Ukraine as a functioning state. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, and now, with the ongoing conflict, it has solidified its control over significant portions of eastern Ukraine. Approximately 20% of Ukraine’s territory is currently under Russian occupation, crippling the nation’s economic prospects and derailing its ambitions of European Union membership.
3. The Easing of Economic Sanctions
Russia currently faces over 24,000 international sanctions, including more than 7,000 from the U.S. Despite these measures, Putin’s long-term goal remains the gradual dismantling of these restrictions. A potential Trump presidency could lead to further sanctions relief, providing a crucial economic boost to Russia. If Western sanctions are lifted or weakened, Russia’s economic resurgence would be accelerated, reinforcing its geopolitical influence.
4. Russia’s Energy Diplomacy
Before the war, Russia supplied nearly 45% of Europe’s total oil imports, with Germany, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, and France being major consumers. Following the invasion, the European Union imposed stringent restrictions, aiming to reduce Russian crude oil imports by 90% by 2023. However, countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic continued purchasing Russian oil via the Druzhba Pipeline.
Meanwhile, nations like India, China, and Turkey significantly increased their imports of Russian oil, ensuring that Moscow’s revenue streams remained largely intact. This strategic redirection has mitigated the impact of Western sanctions, enabling Russia to maintain its economic stability.
5. The Lessons from 2014: A Precursor to the 2022 Invasion
Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea provided valuable insights for Putin. When Ukraine’s pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted following mass protests, Russia swiftly moved to seize Crimea, organizing a controversial referendum where 97% allegedly voted for integration with Russia. This action was condemned as illegal by Ukraine and Western allies, but it reinforced Putin’s belief that the West would avoid direct military confrontation with Russia.
Subsequently, Moscow backed separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk, igniting conflict in the Donbas region. Despite Western sanctions, Russia successfully entrenched its influence in these territories. The muted military response from NATO and the European Union in 2014 emboldened Putin to pursue a full-scale invasion in 2022, confident that the West would refrain from direct intervention.
6. Strengthening Alliances Beyond the West
Anticipating long-term Western resistance, Russia has bolstered its strategic partnerships with China, Iran, North Korea, and India. Trade with China has flourished, Iranian drones have bolstered Russian military operations, and North Korea has signed defense agreements with Moscow. Additionally, longstanding ties with India have remained intact, further insulating Russia from complete diplomatic isolation.
As a result, despite enduring stringent sanctions, Russia’s economy has demonstrated resilience, with GDP growth rates of 3.6% in 2023 and a projected 4% in 2024. In contrast, G7 nations face an average growth rate of only 1.7%.
7. The Trump Factor: A Potential Game Changer
For Putin, the 2024 U.S. presidential election holds immense significance. A Trump victory could dramatically alter U.S. policy toward Ukraine, potentially reducing military aid and easing sanctions on Russia. Trump’s previous administration maintained relatively amicable ties with Moscow, and his return to power could further shift the balance in Putin’s favor.
A Strategic Triumph for Putin
While Putin has yet to formally declare victory or propose a ceasefire, current developments suggest that his long-term objectives are being realized. The geopolitical shifts in NATO, the weakening of Ukraine’s Western alliances, and Russia’s ability to circumvent economic sanctions all point toward a strategic win for Moscow.
Ultimately, Putin’s calculated approach has positioned Russia as a formidable force in global politics, ensuring that the Kremlin’s influence will endure in the evolving international order.
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