Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan is grappling with a fresh wave of internal turmoil as large-scale protests break out in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Spearheading the demonstrations is the United Awami Action Committee, a group demanding a special package for displaced people in the region, as well as the allocation of 12 assembly seats for them.
The protesters have issued a stern warning to the Pakistani government, threatening serious consequences if their demands are not met. The leader of the group, in a fiery address during an Iftar dinner, warned the Pakistan Army against suppressing their movement, stating that any crackdown would be met with an even harsher response.
“If we are tortured, we will not run away but will hit back. The Pakistan Army will not find dead bodies like in Balochistan. They will find dead bodies at the Mangla Dam,” he declared.
Growing Insurgency in Pakistan’s Provinces
The unrest in PoK adds to the growing instability in Pakistan’s provinces. Balochistan has long been a hotbed of separatist activity, with insurgents launching deadly attacks against security forces. Earlier this month, Baloch separatists hijacked an entire train, further highlighting the deteriorating security situation. Meanwhile, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remains a stronghold of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), making it a significant security challenge for the Pakistani Army.
Pakistan’s Military Stretched Thin
With insurgencies flaring up across multiple regions, Pakistan’s military is struggling to maintain control. The army has been engaged in counter-insurgency operations in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while simultaneously dealing with a fragile economy and political instability.
Adding to Pakistan’s troubles is the presence of American weapons in the hands of militant groups. These weapons, abandoned by the U.S. in Afghanistan, have reportedly found their way into the hands of insurgents, making counter-insurgency efforts even more difficult.
Pakistan’s Kashmir Obsession Amid Internal Crisis
Despite its internal challenges, Pakistan continues to push its narrative on Kashmir at international forums. Recently, Pakistan’s envoy to the United Nations raised the Kashmir issue once again, only to receive a sharp rebuke from India’s representative, who urged Pakistan to “vacate Pakistan-occupied Kashmir” and “end cross-border terrorism.”
“Jammu and Kashmir was, is, and will always be an integral part of India. Pakistan continues to illegally occupy the territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which it must vacate,” India’s UN representative asserted.
Will Pakistan’s Army Handle Multi-Front Conflicts?
Experts doubt the Pakistani military’s ability to tackle multiple insurgencies at once. Both Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa feature difficult terrain, making it challenging to flush out militants. Historical precedents, such as the U.S. struggles in Afghanistan, suggest that such conflicts can last for decades with little resolution.
Moreover, Pakistan’s military is heavily focused on India, diverting significant resources to the Line of Control (LoC). With internal threats mounting, Islamabad may find itself stretched too thin to effectively respond to these crises.
U.S. Pressure and Sanctions on Pakistan’s Military
Amid these developments, the United States is increasing pressure on Pakistan. A bipartisan bill has been introduced in the U.S. Congress calling for targeted sanctions on Pakistan’s Army Chief if Islamabad does not release jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. This move signals a growing rift in Pakistan-U.S. ties, which have already been strained due to Pakistan’s history of harboring terrorist groups.
A Repeat of 1971?
Some analysts believe that Pakistan is facing its most significant crisis since the 1971 war, which led to the creation of Bangladesh. With multiple provinces in open rebellion and mounting international pressure, history may be on the verge of repeating itself. Whether Pakistan’s leadership can navigate this crisis remains to be seen, but the signs point to a nation on the brink of further disintegration.
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