Rising Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Spark Fears of Renewed Conflict

Ethiopia and Eritrea, long-standing adversaries, may be on the brink of war, officials from Ethiopia’s restive Tigray region have warned. A direct military confrontation between two of Africa’s largest armies could not only dismantle the historic rapprochement that earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize but also risk drawing in other regional powers, analysts suggest.

Such a conflict would further destabilize the Horn of Africa, where humanitarian crises have already been exacerbated by aid cuts and ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia.

"At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out," General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a vice president in Tigray’s interim administration, wrote in The Africa Report on Monday.

The fears stem from deep divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which fought against Ethiopia’s central government during the 2020-2022 Tigray war—a conflict that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. Following the war, the TPLF split into two factions: one aligned with Ethiopia’s federal government and another opposed to it.

On Tuesday, the dissident faction, which Tsadkan accused of forging ties with Eritrea, seized control of the northern town of Adigrat. In response, Getachew Reda, head of Tigray’s interim administration, urged the Ethiopian government to intervene against the rebels, who deny any alliance with Eritrea.

"There is clear antagonism between Ethiopia and Eritrea," Getachew stated at a Monday press conference. "What concerns me is that the Tigrayan people may once again become victims of a war they do not believe in."

A Region on the Edge

Ethiopia’s federal government has yet to comment on the escalating tensions, while Eritrea’s information minister dismissed Tsadkan’s remarks as "war-mongering psychosis."

However, reports indicate that Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization in mid-February, according to UK-based Human Rights Concern - Eritrea. Meanwhile, Ethiopia has deployed troops toward the Eritrean border this month, according to diplomatic and regional sources cited by Reuters. The Ethiopian and Eritrean governments have not responded to requests for comment, and Reuters has not independently verified these developments.

Former U.S. and EU envoys to the region, Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, warn that the possibility of renewed war is tangible.

"The deterioration of the political and security situation in Tigray is dry tinder waiting for a match," they wrote in Foreign Policy on Wednesday.

A History of Fragile Peace

Ethiopia and Eritrea share a tumultuous history. Eritrea fought a 30-year war for independence, which culminated in its secession from Ethiopia in 1993. A subsequent border war between the two nations from 1998 to 2000 left relations frozen in hostility for nearly two decades.

Tensions thawed in 2018 when Prime Minister Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki agreed to normalize ties. Eritrean forces later backed Ethiopia’s federal government during the Tigray war. However, Eritrea’s exclusion from post-war peace negotiations reignited friction between the two nations.

Eritrean officials have since expressed alarm over Abiy’s repeated public declarations that Ethiopia—one of the world’s most populous landlocked nations—has a "right" to sea access, a statement many analysts interpret as an implicit military threat against Eritrea, which borders the Red Sea.

In a move widely seen as countering Ethiopia’s potential territorial ambitions, Eritrea signed a security pact with Egypt and Somalia last October. Eritrea, a secretive and authoritarian state, remains wary of Ethiopia’s regional aspirations.

As diplomatic silence fuels uncertainty, the Horn of Africa stands at a precarious crossroads, with the specter of another devastating conflict looming ever closer.