India’s Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty Triggers Alarm Over Pakistan’s Water Security

 New Delhi/Islamabad, May 6, 2025 – India’s decision to suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in response to the deadly Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, has raised serious concerns about Pakistan’s water security, with the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) forecasting a 21% water shortage during the early Kharif season. The move, coupled with the closure of key dams on the Chenab River, has significantly reduced water inflows to Pakistan, threatening agricultural output in a nation where 80% of farms rely on the Indus River system.

Escalation Following Pahalgam Attack

The Pahalgam terror attack, which claimed 26 lives, including 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali tourist, in Jammu and Kashmir’s Baisaran Valley, prompted India to adopt a series of punitive measures against Pakistan. Indian authorities have linked the attack to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its local affiliate, The Resistance Front (TRF). In response, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a World Bank-brokered agreement that has governed the sharing of the Indus River and its tributaries since 1960. The treaty allocates the waters of the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers to India and the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers primarily to Pakistan.

As part of its measures, India closed the gates of the Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River, leading to a significant drop in water levels at Akhnoor, Jammu and Kashmir, and reduced flows downstream to Pakistan’s Marala Headworks. The Indian government is also considering similar restrictions at the Kishanganga Dam, signaling a broader strategy to leverage water as a diplomatic tool.

IRSA’s Dire Forecast

The IRSA Advisory Committee, in a recent meeting to assess water availability for the Kharif season (April to September 2025), expressed alarm over the sudden reduction in Chenab River inflows. In a press release, IRSA stated, “The committee reviewed the water situation for the remaining months of Early Kharif (May – June 10) and Late Kharif (June 11 – September) seasons. A unanimous concern was noted regarding the sharp decline in River Chenab inflows at Marala due to reduced supply from India, which is expected to exacerbate water shortages in the early Kharif season.”

The committee projected a 21% water shortage for the early Kharif season, assuming normal supplies in the Chenab River. However, IRSA emphasized that the situation is being monitored daily, and continued reductions in water flow could necessitate a reassessment of the shortage estimates. The shortfall threatens Pakistan’s agricultural sector, particularly in Punjab and Sindh provinces, where the Chenab River supports critical irrigation networks.

Broader Punitive Measures

India’s response to the Pahalgam attack extends beyond water restrictions. The government has imposed a trade embargo, banning all imports from Pakistan and prohibiting Pakistani-flagged ships from accessing Indian ports. The Attari-Wagah border, a key land crossing for trade and pedestrian movement, has been sealed, halting all cross-border activity. Diplomatically, India has expelled Pakistani military advisors and downgraded bilateral relations, further isolating Islamabad.

These measures follow Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pledge to deliver justice for the victims of the attack, which India attributes to Pakistan’s failure to curb terrorist activities. Indian intelligence reports have identified Hashim Musa, a former member of Pakistan’s Special Service Group and an LeT operative, as a key planner of the attack, intensifying calls for accountability.

Regional and International Implications

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty marks a significant escalation in India-Pakistan relations, already strained by decades of territorial disputes over Kashmir. The treaty, considered a rare example of successful bilateral cooperation, has survived multiple conflicts, including three wars. Its abeyance raises questions about the future of water-sharing agreements in the region and the potential for further diplomatic fallout.

Pakistan has condemned India’s actions, with its Foreign Ministry describing the suspension as a violation of international norms. Islamabad has sought to internationalize the issue, requesting a closed-door UN Security Council meeting on May 5, 2025, to address India’s “aggressive actions.” However, sources indicate that the council rebuffed Pakistan’s attempt to deflect blame, instead questioning its links to terrorist groups.

The international community, including the United Nations and the World Bank, has called for restraint. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in a statement on May 5, urged both nations to resolve disputes through dialogue, warning of the broader implications of escalating tensions between two nuclear-armed neighbors.

As Pakistan braces for a challenging Kharif season, the reduction in Chenab River inflows underscores the vulnerability of its agricultural economy to upstream controls. India’s strategic use of water as a geopolitical tool signals a new phase in its response to cross-border terrorism, but it also risks exacerbating humanitarian challenges in Pakistan.

Analysts warn that prolonged disruptions to water flows could deepen economic instability in Pakistan, where agriculture accounts for nearly 20% of GDP and employs over 40% of the workforce. Meanwhile, India’s actions are likely to face scrutiny under international law, particularly given the Indus Waters Treaty’s status as a binding agreement.

For now, the region remains on edge, with both nations showing little inclination to de-escalate. The coming months will test the resilience of diplomatic channels and the international community’s ability to mediate a crisis with far-reaching consequences.