Lagos, Nigeria – May 26, 2025 — A new report by Nigerian risk consultancy SBM Intelligence has revealed that over 700 lives have been lost in Nigeria’s southeast since 2021 as a result of the violent enforcement of a sit-at-home directive issued by the banned separatist group, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).
The directive, originally launched in August 2021 to demand the release of IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu, mandated residents in the predominantly Igbo-populated southeast to remain indoors every Monday, and on other days coinciding with Kanu’s court appearances in Abuja, where he is on trial for terrorism charges. Though the group officially suspended the order shortly after its introduction—citing a “direct instruction” from Kanu—factions and splinter groups have continued to enforce it with deadly consequences.
According to SBM Intelligence, the fatalities stem from both the targeted killing of civilians who defied the order and from violent clashes between IPOB militants and Nigerian security forces. “IPOB’s enforcement tactics, including arson, looting, and targeted assassinations, have created a climate of fear,” the report stated.
The organization further noted that while initial compliance with the sit-at-home order was high—estimated at 82.6% in 2021—public support has since eroded, with recent surveys indicating only 29% of people still back the campaign. “Many now comply under duress,” the report added.
IPOB Denies Responsibility
An IPOB spokesperson rejected the allegations of the group’s involvement in the killings, attributing the violence instead to "kidnappers and criminals recruited by the government to blackmail and demonize IPOB." Nigerian authorities have not issued an official response to the latest findings.
Despite these denials, police have blamed IPOB for a string of violent incidents across the region, including a 2021 prison attack and the recent murder of more than 30 travellers earlier this month—both of which the group has publicly denied.
Economic Devastation
Beyond the mounting death toll, the SBM report highlighted the staggering economic toll of the sit-at-home campaign, estimating that Nigeria's southeast has lost more than 7.6 trillion naira (approximately $4.79 billion) in economic output due to the suspension of business and trade activities every Monday and during court hearings.
The southeast—comprising five states—is a vital commercial hub for Nigeria, and the disruption has further strained a region still grappling with the legacy of the Biafran Civil War, which killed more than 1 million people in the late 1960s.
A Fragmented Movement
The IPOB’s structure has become increasingly fractured, with splinter groups and armed factions continuing enforcement of the sit-at-home order independently. These elements have been linked to attacks on government installations and individuals perceived as sympathetic to the federal government.
While IPOB maintains that it seeks peaceful secession for the Igbo people, its association with violent actors and growing civilian casualties have raised alarm among human rights organizations, security experts, and regional leaders.
As tensions continue to escalate in Nigeria’s southeast, the SBM report has intensified calls for both political dialogue and a decisive security response to stabilize the region and protect civilian life.
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