Ayatollah Khamenei: The Waning Influence of Iran’s Supreme Leader Amid Escalating Conflict

 Tehran, June 16, 2025 | , When Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, made his first public appearance in five years last October, his message was characteristically unyielding. Addressing tens of thousands at a Tehran mosque, the 84-year-old cleric declared that Israel “won’t last long,” urging Iranians to uphold their faith and confront perceived enemies with resolve.

That defiance came just days after a pivotal loss: the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s longtime leader and a close ally of Khamenei, in an Israeli airstrike on the group’s Beirut headquarters. For Khamenei—who had nurtured a decades-long partnership with Nasrallah—this was a personal and strategic blow.

Now, with Israel having launched its most comprehensive military offensive against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan sites, Khamenei’s regional deterrence strategy is visibly fraying. Iranian missile and drone responses have failed to stem Israel’s continued assault. The much-vaunted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), long a pillar of Iran’s defense and foreign policy apparatus, has suffered repeated setbacks. The so-called "axis of resistance" Khamenei assembled—Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria—has largely collapsed under sustained Israeli pressure.

With few viable options and an eroding power base, Khamenei now faces what may be the most precarious moment of his tenure.

From Revolutionary Firebrand to Supreme Leader

Born in the holy city of Mashhad to a modest clerical family, Khamenei rose through Iran’s turbulent political landscape in the 1960s, shaped by Shia theology and the revolutionary fervor of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. A gifted orator and devout ideologue, he worked underground during the Shah’s reign, organizing resistance and translating radical Islamist texts, including those of Sayyid Qutb. He admired Western authors such as Tolstoy, Hugo, and Steinbeck, but his ideological compass remained firmly anti-Western.

Following the 1979 revolution, Khamenei’s ascent was rapid. He survived an assassination attempt in 1981 that left him permanently injured and was elected president the same year. Upon Khomeini’s death in 1989, a constitutional amendment enabled his elevation to Supreme Leader, despite relatively modest clerical credentials.

From then on, Khamenei consolidated power methodically—tightening control over the judiciary, military, and media, and eliminating dissent both at home and abroad. He bolstered the IRGC as a parallel power center and expanded Iran’s reach through proxy groups, particularly Hezbollah.

Preserving Power Through Pragmatic Authoritarianism

While perceived as a hardliner, Khamenei has often employed pragmatism to secure the regime's core interests. He allowed reformist Mohammad Khatami limited latitude during his presidency but systematically blunted efforts that threatened the regime’s ideological foundation. Despite skepticism about the 2015 nuclear deal, Khamenei permitted its implementation, seeing it as a temporary reprieve from international sanctions.

However, his resistance to deeper engagement with the West, paired with support for IRGC interventions in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, further isolated Iran diplomatically. The fallout from these decisions, coupled with economic mismanagement and repression, has led to waves of civil unrest, particularly among youth and women demanding greater freedoms.

At the same time, Khamenei’s public image has been carefully cultivated. Living modestly in a walled compound on Palestine Street in Tehran, he projects piety and simplicity—an image at odds with the corruption and extravagance seen among many Iranian elites.

A Legacy Under Siege

Despite his longevity, Khamenei’s legacy is now in jeopardy. The dismantling of Iran’s regional influence, escalating domestic dissent, and a spiraling conflict with Israel have left his government beleaguered. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria—once a key Iranian ally—has further deepened the crisis.

With his health reportedly in decline, succession speculation is intensifying. Khamenei’s decades-long effort to preserve the Islamic Republic’s ideology, avoid direct war, and maintain his grip on power is entering its final phase—under the shadow of war and uncertainty.

For the man who has ruled Iran longer than any leader since the revolution, the coming days may determine not only how his chapter ends, but whether his vision for Iran survives him.