As the Israel–Iran conflict deepens and global security threats multiply, the spectre of nuclear escalation has once again loomed large. According to the newly released Yearbook 2025 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), it is not only the world's largest nuclear powers that are drawing concern, but also the expanding arsenals and shifting doctrines of regional players.
India Widens Lead Over Pakistan; Technological Edge Emerges
India has solidified its nuclear edge over Pakistan, both in terms of warhead count and technological sophistication. SIPRI estimates that India now possesses 172 nuclear warheads—a modest increase—but its strides in canisterised missiles, MIRV (Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicle) capability, and rapid launch readiness indicate a potentially transformative shift in its strategic doctrine.
Meanwhile, Pakistan, with an estimated 170 warheads, continues to focus on tactical nuclear systems. Its policy of deliberate ambiguity and an emphasis on battlefield deterrence is viewed as dangerously destabilising, particularly in crisis scenarios with India.
Russia and the United States: Stalled Treaties, Rising Risk
Russia remains the largest nuclear power, with approximately 5,880 warheads—2,100 of which are on high operational alert. Despite setbacks in deploying next-generation weapons like the Sarmat ICBM, Moscow continues to modernise its arsenal. SIPRI warns that the expiry of the New START treaty in 2026 without a successor could trigger a new era of unchecked proliferation.
The United States, with 5,244 nuclear warheads, is also undergoing a comprehensive modernisation programme. However, delays and budget overruns have complicated timelines. Notably, the U.S. has begun adding new tactical nuclear weapons, raising concerns about a lower threshold for their potential use in conflict.
China: The Fastest Expanding Nuclear Power
China’s nuclear arsenal has seen the sharpest growth of any state, rising from around 500 to over 600 warheads within a year. With more than 350 new ICBM silos under construction and a likely shift toward peacetime warhead deployment, Beijing is moving toward a posture of assured second-strike capability. At its current trajectory, China could rival U.S. and Russian capabilities by 2035.
France and the UK: Strategic Stability with Expanding Roles
France maintains around 290 warheads and is quietly investing in next-generation platforms, including new ballistic missile submarines and updated air-launched cruise missiles. President Emmanuel Macron has hinted at expanding France’s nuclear umbrella to include other European nations—a move that could reshape NATO’s internal dynamics.
The United Kingdom, with 225 warheads, is also on a path of cautious expansion. Despite operational challenges, London remains committed to continuous at-sea deterrence through the construction of four new SSBNs. A recent policy shift raised the cap on the UK’s total warheads, reversing decades of gradual reduction.
Israel: Modernising Under a Veil of Ambiguity
Israel’s arsenal, estimated at 80–90 warheads, remains undeclared. Yet satellite imagery and missile tests indicate active modernisation, particularly through the Jericho missile programme and upgrades at the Dimona facility. In the context of its current war with Iran—a nation with nuclear latency but no confirmed arsenal—Israel’s opaque but capable deterrent adds a layer of unpredictability to an already volatile theatre.
North Korea: Tactical Weapons, Strategic Uncertainty
North Korea is estimated to have assembled 50 nuclear warheads, with sufficient fissile material to construct dozens more. SIPRI reports that Pyongyang is close to fielding tactical nuclear weapons, which would lower the threshold for nuclear use in a conventional conflict. Kim Jong Un’s recent call for “limitless” expansion of the programme signals continued defiance of international norms, while crisis communication with neighbouring countries remains virtually non-existent.
Why SIPRI’s Data Matters More Than Ever
Beyond the raw numbers, SIPRI’s findings paint a stark picture: global arms control frameworks are eroding, while doctrines shift toward faster, more flexible, and often more ambiguous postures.
The looming expiry of New START, China’s refusal to enter trilateral arms negotiations, and the growing integration of AI and advanced missile defences are undermining traditional deterrence models. Meanwhile, the Israel–Iran conflict—pitting one nuclear-armed state against a suspected nuclear-threshold rival—exemplifies the dangers of regional rivalries in the absence of diplomatic guardrails.
As SIPRI researcher Matt Korda cautions:
“Nuclear weapons do not guarantee security. In fact, they heighten the risk of escalation and catastrophic miscalculation—especially in an era of disinformation and strategic ambiguity.”
In 2025, the global nuclear landscape is not just shifting. It is becoming more opaque, more fractured, and more dangerous. Without renewed international commitment to dialogue and disarmament, the world may be edging closer to a tipping point.
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