Four years after the Galwan Valley clash, a confrontation that profoundly altered bilateral ties, China now seeks rapprochement—reopening the Kailash Mansarovar route and initiating limited de-escalation along the border. But India remains cautious, and with good reason.
Recent developments underscore a widening diplomatic rift between New Delhi and Beijing, exacerbated by China’s alignment with Pakistan and its silence on terrorism targeting India. At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defence Ministers' meeting in Qingdao, India declined to endorse a joint communiqué that failed to mention the Pahalgam terror attack—an omission perceived in New Delhi as a deliberate attempt to dilute a key security concern.
India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh conveyed a firm message to his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun: “Do not add new complexities to the relationship.” The move was a clear sign that India will not tolerate minimisation of cross-border terrorism or attempts to rewrite the narrative on regional stability. While India has not withdrawn from the SCO, it continues to treat the bloc—dominated by China and Pakistan—with growing skepticism. In contrast to India’s active role in QUAD and BRICS, the SCO remains a strategic grey zone.
China-Pakistan Axis: Strategic Calculations
New Delhi is also watching closely the evolving China-Pakistan strategic partnership. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s three-day visit to China in May, coming on the heels of India’s Operation Sindoor, focused on enhancing cooperation and extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan under the Belt and Road Initiative. This expansionist vision has raised fresh concerns in India over China’s growing footprint in its immediate neighbourhood.
Meanwhile, China’s posture in BRICS has revealed additional diplomatic fault lines. Reports suggest that President Xi Jinping has opted to skip the July BRICS Summit in Brazil, allegedly to avoid being overshadowed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been invited for a state dinner by host President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The incident points to Beijing’s increasing sensitivity over its perceived standing in multilateral platforms where India plays a prominent role.
India has not forgotten China’s repeated obstruction of efforts to designate Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist at the UN, or its continued military support to Pakistan—including the provision of J-10 fighter jets and an agreement to deliver 40 additional J-35A aircraft and long-range air defense systems.
Economic Engagement Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Despite the mistrust, pragmatic engagement continues. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong recently visited New Delhi to finalise agreements aimed at stabilising economic ties, including the resumption of direct flights and the revival of trade talks. The long-suspended Kailash Mansarovar Yatra has resumed, and the first group of Indian pilgrims has already crossed into Tibet.
However, India’s growing focus on developing its own rare earth capabilities has reportedly unnerved Beijing, which currently dominates global supply chains in this critical sector. Bilateral economic ties thus continue to unfold against a backdrop of strategic rivalry.
The Strategic Outlook
While both sides publicly maintain a working relationship, the underlying reality is one of deep-seated distrust. India’s strategic establishment remains wary of China’s long-term objectives, particularly as Beijing continues to internationalise the Balochistan issue while sidestepping concerns over its own internal repression, such as the treatment of Uyghurs.
The path forward for India-China relations is fraught with contradictions. Despite diplomatic overtures and resumed exchanges, the core issues—border tensions, Pakistan, and China’s opaque intentions—continue to cast a long shadow. As India prepares for Prime Minister Modi’s expected visit to China for the SCO summit later this year, it is clear that New Delhi is engaging from a position of strategic caution, drawing clear red lines even while keeping dialogue open.
In this geopolitical chessboard, India is not exiting the room—but it is no longer playing by the old rules.
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