White Britons Projected to Become a Minority by 2063 Amid Unprecedented Demographic Shifts, Study Warns

 London, June 5, 2025, 11:21 AM IST – A new study by Professor Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University has projected that White Britons, currently comprising 73% of the UK population, will become a minority in their own country by 2063, a shift driven by high levels of migration and differing birth rates. The analysis, which draws on Office for National Statistics (ONS) and census data, forecasts a dramatic transformation of the UK’s demographic landscape, raising urgent questions about national identity, social cohesion, and the capacity of the state to manage such rapid change.

According to the study, the proportion of White Britons is expected to decline to 57% by 2050, falling below 50% by 2063. By the end of the century, this share could shrink to just 33%, with six in ten people in the UK either being foreign-born or having at least one immigrant parent. The Muslim population, currently at 7%, is projected to rise to 19.2% by 2100, reflecting higher fertility rates and continued immigration trends. These projections align with recent census data, which revealed in 2022 that London and Birmingham had already become minority White British cities, a trend now extending nationally.

The UK has experienced a significant influx of both legal and illegal migration under successive Conservative and Labour governments, with net migration reaching a record high of 906,000 in 2023, as reported by The Telegraph. Professor Goodwin’s analysis factors in migration patterns alongside birth and death rates across various ethnic and religious groups, highlighting the accelerating pace of demographic change. He notes that among the under-40s, the tipping point will arrive even sooner, with White Britons potentially becoming a minority in this age group by 2050.

Speaking to The Telegraph, Goodwin emphasized the broader implications of his findings: “This raises enormous questions about the capacity of our country and leaders to unify people around a shared sense of identity, values, ways of life, and culture.” He cautioned that the rapid shift could provoke significant public concern, stating, “The concerns that this study is liable to spark among many Britons will need to be recognised, respected, and addressed if the UK is to avoid considerable political turbulence and polarisation in the years and decades ahead.”

The report comes at a time of heightened debate over immigration policy, with successive governments facing criticism for failing to curb arrivals despite public support for stricter border controls, as evidenced by the Brexit vote in 2016. Critics argue that the scale of change—unprecedented in the nation’s history—has not been adequately debated or endorsed by voters, potentially weakening ties to the UK’s historical and cultural roots. As the country approaches this transformative juncture, the study underscores the need for a nuanced and inclusive dialogue to navigate the challenges of a rapidly evolving society on this pivotal day of June 5, 2025.