Beirut, Lebanon — In the aftermath of a punishing conflict with Israel, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is conducting a sweeping internal review that may lead to a recalibration of its armed posture, according to multiple sources familiar with the group’s ongoing deliberations. While Hezbollah is not considering full disarmament, senior figures are reportedly weighing a significant reduction in its military footprint.
The strategic review, not previously disclosed, comes as Hezbollah grapples with profound setbacks: heavy battlefield losses, international pressure, and growing financial distress. These developments follow the late-November truce with Israel, which marked the end of a war that decimated Hezbollah’s command structure, killed thousands of its fighters, and wiped out a substantial portion of its arsenal.
Israeli air and ground operations targeted Hezbollah strongholds during the conflict, prompting the group to cede several weapons depots in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese Armed Forces, in accordance with ceasefire terms. While Hezbollah has denied ceasefire violations, Israel continues to strike infrastructure linked to the group, citing ongoing threats.
Shifting Regional Alliances and Declining Support
Hezbollah’s strategic recalibration also reflects a changing regional landscape. The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December severed a key supply line from Iran. Compounding this, Iran itself is recovering from its own war with Israel and is unlikely to offer the same level of financial and military backing, say regional officials.
Sources within Hezbollah confirm that closed-door meetings are taking place among senior leadership and internal committees to assess the group’s future. Discussions are centered around the group’s political role, social programs, leadership structure, and especially its weapons strategy.
“Hezbollah had an excess of power,” one official said anonymously. “All that strength turned into a weak point.”
A New Military Doctrine?
While Hezbollah has long justified its arsenal as a deterrent against Israeli aggression, the group is now reportedly contemplating the conditional surrender of certain weapons systems—specifically drones and longer-range missiles—if Israel agrees to a full withdrawal from southern Lebanon and halts its strikes.
However, Hezbollah has no intention of giving up all arms. It plans to retain light weaponry and anti-tank missiles as part of what insiders describe as a “minimum resistance capability.”
The United States and Israel, both of which designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, have called for complete disarmament. The U.S.- and France-brokered ceasefire agreement stipulates that all unauthorized arms must be confiscated, starting with regions south of the Litani River.
Lebanon’s new government, formed in February, is pushing for a full state monopoly on arms. Failure by Hezbollah to comply risks reigniting domestic tensions, particularly with political rivals who accuse the group of leveraging military power to dominate national affairs.
The Weight of Legacy and Supporter Loyalty
Founded by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the early 1980s to fight Israeli occupation, Hezbollah’s identity has long been intertwined with its armed resistance. Analysts suggest that abandoning its military wing would fundamentally alter the organization.
“Hezbollah’s status as an armed group is part of its DNA,” said Nicholas Blanford, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of a history of the group. “They've faced challenges before, but not this number simultaneously.”
Support among its core Shi’ite base remains strong. “Hezbollah is the backbone of the Shi’ites, even if it is weak now,” said a woman known as Um Hussein, whose son died fighting for the group. “We were a poor group. Nobody spoke up for us.”
Despite internal backing, Hezbollah’s financial woes are mounting. The group claims to have paid out over $50 million in compensation to families affected by the war, with another $25 million pending. But delays in disbursement and reduced services—such as cuts in free medication at Hezbollah-run pharmacies—point to a severe cash crunch.
Residents in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, say promised payments are being delayed. “Everyone is scattered and homeless. No one has promised to pay for our shelter,” said one man, who was issued a compensation cheque that Hezbollah’s financial wing, Al-Qard Al-Hassan, could not cash.
Crackdown on Financial Channels
Lebanese authorities have taken steps to limit Hezbollah’s ability to receive funds. These include banning direct commercial flights between Beirut and Tehran—long suspected of being used for financial transfers—and tightening airport security.
Israel, too, has intensified efforts to disrupt the group's funding networks. In June, the Israeli military claimed it had killed an Iranian official responsible for transferring hundreds of millions of dollars annually to regional armed groups, as well as a Lebanese currency exchange operator accused of funneling money to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s leadership has shifted some of the burden onto the Lebanese government, demanding state-sponsored reconstruction efforts. However, Foreign Minister Youssef Raji, a known critic of the group, has declared that no international aid will be released until Hezbollah lays down its arms.
Political Survival and the Road Ahead
In local elections held in May, Hezbollah and its Shi’ite ally Amal Movement secured dominant wins, even as the group faced growing criticism. Next year’s legislative elections are shaping up to be a critical test.
“This is an existential battle for Hezbollah,” said Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Lebanon’s Annahar newspaper. “They will use every means at their disposal—not only to delay disarmament but to reinforce their political influence.”
As Hezbollah weighs its future, its ability to redefine itself without sacrificing its core identity remains uncertain. What is clear is that the coming months will be pivotal for one of the Middle East’s most influential and controversial actors.
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