Kenya’s "One-Term" Uprising: Mounting Youth-Led Protests Threaten President Ruto's Political Future

NAIROBI • As police batons, water cannon, and sporadic gunfire clash with unwavering chants of “Ruto wantam”—Swahili slang for "Ruto one-term"—Kenya’s streets have become the stage for a growing wave of political discontent. The movement, driven largely by young Kenyans disillusioned with the country’s leadership, is increasingly casting doubt over President William Ruto’s hopes for a second term in 2027.

Elected nearly three years ago on promises to uplift the poor and end police brutality, Ruto now finds his administration under fire for the very issues he pledged to resolve: soaring living costs, entrenched corruption, and violent state crackdowns. Analysts warn that unless his government shifts tone and delivers tangible economic improvements, it risks alienating the very electorate that brought it to power.

A Generation Unwilling to Wait

At the heart of the protests is Generation Z—a digitally connected, politically aware, and highly mobilised segment of society. Products of the free education system introduced two decades ago, many of these young Kenyans have little memory of the country’s past under authoritarian rule. Yet they face one of its most pressing modern dilemmas: unemployment.

According to Afrobarometer, as many as 800,000 young people enter the job market annually, many more educated than previous generations but significantly more likely to remain unemployed.

“They have no memory of the rough times,” notes Macharia Munene, professor of history and international relations at the United States International University (USIU) in Nairobi. “They’ve learned how to ask questions.”

This cohort, unconstrained by party loyalty or traditional political structures, has taken to social media to organise and mobilise, bypassing Kenya’s fractured opposition and creating a powerful grassroots movement that challenges the state directly.

Protests and Repression: A Dangerous Cycle

On Monday, anti-government demonstrations—coinciding with the 35th anniversary of pro-democracy protests—left 31 people dead, according to a state-funded rights body. Protesters called attention to rising prices, abductions, and police brutality. "We can't feed our families," said Festus Muiruri, a 22-year-old protester in Nairobi. "We want the president to hear us."

Yet Ruto’s administration has been slow to respond. His Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen has dismissed recent protests as an attempted "coup" by "criminal anarchists." Such rhetoric, observers say, reflects a widening disconnect between the government and its increasingly vocal youth population.

The death of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody last month acted as a catalyst. Nationwide protests over his death on June 25 left 19 more people dead, further deepening public outrage.

Economic Headwinds and Investor Anxiety

The fallout extends beyond politics. Investor sentiment has plummeted, with business expectations dropping to their second-lowest level on record in May, according to Stanbic Bank Kenya. “Repeated protests and shutdowns will continue to erode investor confidence and disrupt economic activity,” warned Jervin Naidoo of Oxford Economics, especially if the government continues to favour confrontation over dialogue.

The Road to 2027

Despite growing unrest, Ruto remains insulated for now by a comfortable parliamentary majority and a divided opposition. His co-optation of long-time rival Raila Odinga into government last year effectively neutralised the most potent threat to his leadership.

With two years remaining before the next general election, Ruto is banking on increased social spending, job creation programmes, and a decline in inflation to rebuild public confidence. Analysts at Control Risks suggest that improved economic performance could yet shore up his political capital.

However, many remain unconvinced.

“The government is perceived to be blind, deaf, and dumb by the young people,” said Javas Bigambo, a political analyst. “This perception needs urgent correction. Treating protesters with condescension will only damage Ruto’s re-election prospects further.”

Unless that divide is bridged—quickly and meaningfully—President Ruto may find that “wantam” becomes more than just a chant: it may define his legacy.