Exit Polls 2026: Mixed Signals Across States as India Awaits Counting Day Verdict

With vote counting scheduled for May 4, attention has turned to exit polls from the latest round of Assembly elections across four key states—offering early indications of voter sentiment while setting the stage for competing political narratives.

Though exit polls have historically delivered mixed levels of accuracy, they remain a significant influence on public discourse in the run-up to official results.

A consolidated reading of projections suggests a decisive victory for the BJP-led alliance in Assam, a potential edge for the BJP in West Bengal, a narrow lead for the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala, and a comfortable advantage for the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu.

Assam: Broad Consensus Points to NDA Sweep

Exit polls indicate a near-unanimous verdict in Assam in favour of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). At least four major pollsters—including Today’s Chanakya, VoteVibe, JVC and Chanakya Strategies—project a clear majority for the ruling alliance.

Today’s Chanakya estimates the NDA’s tally at 102 ± 9 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark of 64. Other agencies broadly align with this projection, with VoteVibe forecasting 90–100 seats, JVC 88–101, and Chanakya Strategies 88–98.

In contrast, the Congress-led alliance is projected to secure between 22 and 33 seats, while the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is expected to remain marginal, with most estimates placing it between zero and three seats. Collectively, the projections suggest a decisive and one-sided mandate in the state.

West Bengal: BJP Ahead, But Contest Remains Fluid

In West Bengal, the electoral picture is more contested, though several exit polls indicate an advantage for the BJP. Five out of eight major pollsters—including Today’s Chanakya, Matrize, P-Marq, Chanakya Strategies and Poll Diary—place the BJP ahead in the 294-member Assembly.

Today’s Chanakya projects 192 ± 11 seats for the BJP, well above the majority threshold of 147, while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is estimated at around 100 seats.

Other projections vary significantly. Matrize forecasts 146–161 seats for the BJP, while P-Marq places the party between 150 and 175 seats. However, dissenting estimates remain: People’s Pulse and Janmat Polls project a TMC victory, while JVC suggests a closely fought contest.

Overall, the exit poll landscape indicates a BJP edge, but with notable uncertainty still surrounding the final outcome.

Tamil Nadu: Strong Momentum for DMK-Led Alliance

In Tamil Nadu, exit polls show a strong and consistent trend in favour of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance. Five out of six major pollsters—including Today’s Chanakya, People’s Pulse, Matrize, P-Marq and People’s Insight—project the alliance crossing the majority mark in the 234-member Assembly.

Today’s Chanakya estimates 125 ± 11 seats for the DMK+, comfortably above the halfway mark of 118. Other agencies broadly support this outlook, placing the alliance within the 120–145 seat range.

The AIADMK-led alliance is projected to secure between 60 and 110 seats.

A key variable in the state is the emergence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor Vijay. Most pollsters identify the party as a significant third force, though projections vary widely—from under 10 seats in some estimates to as many as 40 in others.

Kerala: UDF Leads in Tight Contest

In Kerala, exit polls uniformly suggest a narrow lead for the United Democratic Front (UDF), though the race remains highly competitive.

All major pollsters—including Today’s Chanakya, VoteVibe, Matrize, JVC, People’s Pulse and Axis My India—place the UDF ahead in the 140-member Assembly.

Today’s Chanakya projects 69 ± 9 seats for the UDF, just around the majority mark of 71, while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is estimated at 64 ± 9 seats. Across agencies, the UDF is broadly placed in the 72–85 seat range, with the LDF projected between 55 and 65 seats.

The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain a marginal player in the state, with most projections limiting its tally to between zero and five seats.

Final Verdict Awaited

While exit polls provide a preliminary snapshot of electoral trends, they are not definitive indicators of the final outcome. The true verdict will emerge only when votes are counted on May 4, which will ultimately determine whether these projections hold or diverge from reality.

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