Donald Trump’s criminal conviction presents a remarkable collection of historic firsts.

Donald Trump's criminal conviction presents a remarkable collection of historic firsts. He's the first former or serving US president to be found guilty of a crime. He's the first presumptive major-party nominee to become a convicted felon as well. While Trump plans his appeal in the hush-money case, and awaits a sentence on July 11 that could in theory include prison time and a hefty fine, it's not too early to consider the political fallout. That will be difficult, however, given this has never happened before.

"We often look to history to find some kind of hint of what's going to happen," says Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University. "But there is nothing in the record that comes even close to this." Trump secured the Republican presidential nomination earlier this year and is scheduled to be crowned at the party's convention just days after his sentencing. Polls indicate he is in a statistical dead heat with President Joe Biden and maintains a slight edge in many key swing states that will decide the election. But those surveys also provide evidence that this conviction might change all of that.

In exit polls conducted during the Republican primaries this winter, double-digit numbers of voters said that they would not vote for the former president if he was convicted of a felony. An April survey by Ipsos and ABC News found that 16% of those backing Trump would reconsider their support in such a situation. Those were hypothetical convictions, however. And at the time he was facing four criminal cases, including charges related to an alleged conspiracy to overturn the result of the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents once leaving the White House. Now those voters can make their judgment based on a real conviction.

"The real verdict is going to be [on] November 5, by the people," Trump said, moments after leaving the courtroom. Doug Schoen, a pollster who worked with Democratic President Bill Clinton and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, says American voters may feel less strongly about the hush-money case by then because it relates to events that took place eight years ago. "While it's not a great thing to be convicted of a crime, what voters will be thinking about in November is inflation, the southern border, competition with China and Russia and the money that is being spent on Israel and Ukraine," he said.