Will Kamala Harris be the first woman president of the US? Or will the Republican candidate and former US President Donald Trump win?

Will Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris become the first female President of the United States? Or will the Republican candidate and former US President Donald Trump win? 

The 2024 US election is shaping up to be one of the most intense contests in recent memory, with no clear indication of who will emerge victorious. On November 5, Americans will cast their ballots in the closest presidential election in the nation's history. What the polls suggest The latest national polls released Friday reveal a tight race in the U.S. presidential race, signaling a shift toward Trump. 

A New York Times and Siena College poll shows Harris and Trump leading at 48% each, while a CNN poll reports a similar tie at 47%. The Wall Street Journal poll puts Trump slightly ahead at 47%, with Harris trailing at 45%. Because these differences are small and within the margin of error, Democrats claim that support for them has remained constant and voter loyalty has not changed significantly. Polls reach uncertainty.

Associate Professor David Smith of the University of Sydney, an expert on US politics, said it was the closest election since 2000 based on polling data. "The fact that almost all the polls we see in most states are so close, it's much harder to predict than any election in recent memory," Smith said. 

Initially, the signs seemed to favour Republicans; however, Democrats say they’ve noticed encouraging trends for their side in recent days. Still, no clear conclusions have emerged. Contest Shapers Key questions remain about the factors that could shape the outcome. A major one is whether Harris has more potential to broaden her support compared to Trump. In his past campaigns, Trump reached no higher than 47% of the popular vote. He succeeded in 2016 as third-party candidates drew nearly 6% of votes, but he fell short in 2020 when their share dropped to under 3%. Biden, in comparison, won 51% of the popular vote, a 4-point lead over Trump, securing a narrow electoral college win. However, both of them have failed to assure Americans that they would herald change. 

Kamala’s Hurdles Harris’s most direct route to an electoral college majority lies in reclaiming the three Great Lakes states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—that once formed the Democratic “Blue Wall”, the Washington Post said in a report. This term, introduced by journalist Ron Brownstein, refers to 18 states and the District of Columbia that consistently voted Democrat in six presidential elections before Trump broke the “Blue Wall” in 2016. If Harris can secure these three states as Biden did, along with an extra electoral vote from one of Nebraska’s congressional districts, she would reach the winning threshold of 270 electoral votes even if she loses other key battlegrounds. Could Harris reach close enough to Biden’s 2020 support to gain an electoral college win remains a key question, the report said. 

Trump Hopes 2016 Repeat Trump’s approach in the key northern states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—will remain focused on maximising support in small towns and rural areas and he’ll hope to breach the “Blue Wall” like he did in 2016. The Washington Post report said that Trump’s path to victory, even with wins in the Sun Belt states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, he would still need to win at least one key industrial state to clinch victory. Pennsylvania stands out due to its 19 electoral votes—the highest among the swing states. If Harris wins Michigan and Wisconsin but loses Pennsylvania, she would then need to capture either North Carolina or Georgia (both with 16 electoral votes) and also win Nevada, where Trump previously lost by around 2 percentage points in each of his past races. 

What To Expect Observers can expect this election to polarise and divide Americans further. People will vote keeping in mind gender dynamics, abortion is undoubtedly a key issue and state of education and college politics will play a key role in the election outcome. The Republican Party is attempting to broaden its coalition beyond just White, working-class voters to include more diverse groups, particularly Latino and Black men. This represents a strategic shift in Trump’s approach to attract a wider voter base. But in Kamala’s case there are concerns about voter apathy, especially among young African Americans, could significantly impact Harris’s chances. However, Kamala also finds the backing of women who are increasingly supporting Democrats.