Exit Polls Signal Coalition Continuity as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil Dominate

 Exit polls from the 2024 general election indicate that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are poised to retain their dominant position and are likely to re-establish their coalition government. However, the exact composition of their governing alliance—whether joined by other parties or independents—remains uncertain and may take days of negotiation to clarify.

If these results hold true when the votes are officially tallied, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are expected to secure a combined total of 75 to 80 seats, buoyed by a favorable seat bonus and strong transfer patterns between the two parties. These transfer votes will be critical as the detailed counts progress in the coming days.

Transfer Patterns Among Voters

The exit poll, conducted by Ipsos/B&A for The Irish Times, RTÉ, TG4, and TCD, sheds light on voter behavior, revealing robust inter-party transfers within the coalition. Fine Gael supporters directed 37% of their second-preference votes to other Fine Gael candidates, while 32% transferred to Fianna Fáil. Conversely, Fianna Fáil voters gave 39% of their second preferences to their own party and 30% to Fine Gael.

In contrast, Sinn Féin maintained high internal loyalty, with 48% of its voters transferring to other Sinn Féin candidates. Their next highest second preference was for independent candidates, reflecting a challenge in attracting transfers from rival parties. Interestingly, arch-rivals Labour and the Social Democrats demonstrated significant cross-party transfer rates, with 22% of Labour voters favoring the Social Democrats and 23% of Social Democrats voters reciprocating. This suggests that voters may be less divided than their party leaderships often appear.

Fine Gael’s Resilient Finish Despite Campaign Struggles

The exit poll suggests Fine Gael’s campaign, which faltered in its early stages, regained momentum in the final days. While a 21% share of the vote marks a decline from the 27% recorded in a September poll, it is likely to be seen as a relief for the party leadership, who feared a sharper collapse in recent weeks.

The campaign’s challenges began early, with Fine Gael on the defensive following Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary’s controversial remarks about teachers at a campaign event for Minister Peter Burke. The party’s decision to continue with controversial candidate John McGahon further fueled criticism.

A particularly damaging moment came when Taoiseach Simon Harris faced backlash for a dismissive comment during an exchange with disabilities worker Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk, Co Cork. Though Harris issued an apology, the incident dominated headlines and gave political opponents an opportunity to attack, forcing Fine Gael into damage control for several days.

Looking Ahead: A Potential Coalition Renewal

While neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil achieved a flawless campaign, the exit polls suggest that their coalition remains the most viable option for forming a stable government. The final seat count and ongoing negotiations will determine whether other parties or independents join the coalition to secure a parliamentary majority.

The election results reaffirm Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s centrality in Irish politics, but the challenges of voter dissatisfaction and campaign missteps highlight the need for introspection as they prepare for the next term in government.