The sudden collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has left Syrians, regional powers, and global stakeholders grappling with uncertainty as the rebel alliance begins the delicate process of transitioning power.
The United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session late Monday to discuss the dramatic turn of events, which unfolded over just 12 days. Diplomats, still reeling from the speed of Assad's ouster after a 13-year civil war, admitted to being caught off guard. "Everyone was taken by surprise, including members of the council," remarked Russian U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia. "We must wait, observe, and carefully evaluate how the situation evolves."
For years, Russia had been a cornerstone of Assad’s support, aiding his government against a resilient opposition. However, the Syrian leader fled Damascus for Moscow on Sunday, marking the end of over five decades of Assad family rule.
In Damascus, celebrations erupted even as Assad’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Jalali, announced on Monday his willingness to transfer authority to the rebel-led Salvation Government. This administration, headquartered in northwestern Syria, is set to take charge under the leadership of Mohamed al-Bashir, head of the Salvation Government. Meetings between Jalali, Vice President Faisal Mekdad, and the rebel commander Ahmed al-Sharaa (widely known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani) began outlining the contours of a transitional government.
A Generational Turning Point
The rapid advance of the militia alliance, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—a former al-Qaeda affiliate—signals a watershed moment in the Middle East. The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, created one of the worst refugee crises in recent history, and devastated the country’s infrastructure and economy.
However, the future remains uncertain. The rebel alliance has yet to articulate a comprehensive plan for governance, and the lack of a clear precedent in the volatile region amplifies the uncertainty.
Global and Regional Responses
The international community is watching closely. Oil prices rose over 1% on Monday amid concerns about potential regional instability, despite Syria not being a major oil producer.
"This is an extraordinary moment for the Syrian people," stated U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the U.N. Robert Wood. "The critical question now is whether a governing authority can emerge that respects the rights and dignities of all Syrians."
The United States has initiated outreach to Syrian rebel groups and regional allies like Turkey to explore diplomatic avenues. Meanwhile, Qatar has reportedly begun discussions with HTS as states race to establish contact with the group.
Rebuilding Amid Uncertainty
In Damascus, insurgent fighters expressed optimism for a civilian-led administration. "We want the state and security forces to restore order," said Firdous Omar, a fighter planning to return to farming in Idlib.
HTS leader Golani pledged to rebuild Syria and repair its fractured society, emphasizing a commitment to accountability for war crimes. "We will release a list of officials involved in torturing the Syrian people," he said, promising rewards for information leading to the prosecution of perpetrators.
Despite its attempts to rebrand, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by many nations, raising questions about its ability to govern effectively. Syrian Ambassador to the U.N., Koussay Aldahhak, voiced a vision for the future: "Syrians aspire to a state founded on freedom, equality, the rule of law, and democracy. Together, we will rebuild our country and create a brighter future."
Challenges Ahead
Signs of stabilization are emerging. Banks and oil sector offices are set to reopen under enhanced security measures. However, challenges loom large, including Israel’s recent seizure of a buffer zone in southern Syria—a move that has drawn widespread condemnation from Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Israel insists its actions are temporary and aimed solely at safeguarding its security.
As the dust settles on Assad’s regime, Syria stands at a crossroads, facing immense challenges but also a unique opportunity to redefine its future.
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