Breaking the Stronghold: How Rebels Toppled Five Decades of Assad Rule

After over 13 years of civil war, Syria witnessed a seismic shift as opposition forces executed a swift and highly effective offensive that toppled President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The operation, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Abu Mohammed al-Golani, began with the capture of Aleppo and advanced rapidly, culminating in the fall of Damascus and an end to the Assad family’s five-decade rule. This sudden collapse was attributed to a confluence of factors: a demoralized Syrian army, weakened allies like Iran and Hezbollah due to external conflicts, and Russia's reduced focus amidst its entanglement in Ukraine. While Turkey officially denied involvement, its tacit approval and longstanding support for opposition groups played a critical role in enabling the operation.

The rebels' success was bolstered by strategic timing and the disarray within Assad’s ranks. Years of corruption and resource mismanagement had eroded the Syrian military’s capabilities, while morale among troops had plummeted. Moreover, Hezbollah’s withdrawal of elite fighters to address losses inflicted by Israel further weakened Assad's position. With minimal resistance, HTS and its allies seized key territories, surpassing expectations. Analysts credit the coherence of the rebel coalition, a rarity in Syria’s fragmented opposition, and the regime’s vulnerabilities as decisive factors in the rapid offensive.

The aftermath reshaped regional dynamics, with Assad’s downfall dealing a severe blow to Iranian influence. Turkey emerged as the most influential external player, leveraging its support for opposition groups to advance its interests, including curbing Kurdish power and securing refugee repatriation. The rebel victory underscores a pivotal moment in Syria’s civil war, marking the ascendance of Turkish-backed factions and a new chapter of uncertainty in the war-torn nation’s future.