Kurdish Political Gains in Syria Under Threat Amid Shifting Alliances

 Syria's primary Kurdish factions, which have achieved significant political and territorial gains during 13 years of conflict, now face mounting challenges as Turkish-backed groups intensify their mobilization in the north and a newly aligned Damascus government strengthens ties with Ankara.

The Kurdish groups, part of a stateless ethnic population spanning Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, and Syria, had been among the few beneficiaries of the Syrian conflict, controlling nearly a quarter of the country. Their armed wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), played a key role as a U.S. ally in combating the Islamic State. However, the balance of power has shifted dramatically with the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) taking control of Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, according to analysts and Western diplomats.

Turkey’s Intensifying Influence

This development is expected to deepen Turkish influence in Syria at a time when the U.S. administration's commitment to Kurdish-led forces is under scrutiny. Ankara views the Syrian Kurdish factions as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S., and other nations.

“The balance has shifted fundamentally to Turkey-aligned factions,” said Aron Lund of Century International. “Turkey is determined to exploit this to its fullest.”

This shift is evident in escalating clashes in Syria’s north, where Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces have advanced militarily against the SDF. Fanar al-Kait, a senior Kurdish official, expressed readiness for dialogue with Turkey but criticized Ankara’s “bad intentions,” warning of further regional conflict.

The new leadership in Damascus, leaning towards Ankara, poses another challenge for the Kurdish-led regional administration, which has advocated for decentralization. The prospect of renewed central authority threatens the autonomy the Kurds have established since the Syrian conflict began in 2011.

The U.S. has been a crucial partner for the SDF in its campaign against the Islamic State. However, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expects foreign support for Kurdish forces to wane following Assad’s ouster. Turkish officials have emphasized their stance that the PKK/YPG elements must disarm and exit Syria.

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi has acknowledged the presence of PKK fighters in Syria but denied organizational ties to the group. He stated they would leave Syria if a ceasefire with Turkey is achieved.

Amid these developments, international actors are closely monitoring the situation. The U.S. has brokered a ceasefire, but the SDF alleges violations by Turkey and its allies. Washington has reiterated its commitment to countering the Islamic State but faces competing pressures as regional dynamics evolve.

The path forward remains uncertain. Syrian Kurdish leaders emphasize the importance of a decentralized, democratic Syria, while their forces prepare for potential integration into a new political phase in Damascus. SDF officials stress the importance of international support and dialogue to navigate the shifting political and military landscape.

This moment represents both a challenge and an opportunity for the Kurdish factions as they seek to safeguard their achievements and adapt to a rapidly changing environment in Syria.