Pakistan’s Nuclear Leverage: A Standoff with China Over Gwadar Port Access

By Sub Editor: 🖎 Unni Thalakkasseri

Tensions between Pakistan and China have reportedly risen following Pakistan’s demand for a significant enhancement of its nuclear capabilities in exchange for continued access to the strategically vital Gwadar Port. This new twist in their relationship has reportedly angered Chinese officials and stalled negotiations between the two nations. Central to this dispute is Pakistan’s request for “second-strike nuclear capability,” a highly sensitive and significant demand in the world of nuclear deterrence.

Understanding Second-Strike Nuclear Capability

Second-strike capability refers to a nation’s ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons after absorbing a first nuclear strike. Essentially, it ensures that a country can deliver a devastating counterattack even if its nuclear forces have been partially or completely destroyed by an enemy’s initial attack. The concept of second-strike capability is a cornerstone of nuclear deterrence theory, often described as a "mutually assured destruction" (MAD) strategy. If two countries both have the means to execute a second-strike, the threat of mutual annihilation keeps both sides from initiating nuclear conflict.

Second-strike capability typically requires a nation to have secure and survivable nuclear forces, which may include:

• Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) — Deployed on nuclear submarines, these can remain hidden underwater and are hard to target.

• Mobile land-based missile systems — These can be relocated to avoid preemptive strikes.

• Strategic bombers — These can launch nuclear weapons from the air, often with the ability to survive a first strike.

In the case of Pakistan, the demand for second-strike capability implies that Islamabad wants the assurance of a credible nuclear response in the event that India launches a preemptive nuclear strike. This would require advanced nuclear systems, including those that are mobile and hard to track, and possibly even submarine-based nuclear deterrents.

Countries with Second-Strike Nuclear Capability

Several countries around the world possess second-strike nuclear capability, which plays a crucial role in their nuclear deterrence strategies. These countries include:

1. United States — The U.S. has a robust second-strike capability through its nuclear triad, consisting of land-based missiles (Minuteman III), submarine-launched missiles (Trident II D5), and strategic bombers (B-52 and B-2).
2. Russia — Like the U.S., Russia possesses a nuclear triad, including nuclear submarines (Borey-class), intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and long-range bombers.
3. China — China has been modernizing its second-strike capabilities, particularly with the development of nuclear submarines (Type 094 Jin-class) and land-based missile systems. While the country’s nuclear strategy has traditionally been less aggressive than that of the U.S. and Russia, it is increasingly focusing on survivable deterrent systems.
4. India — India also maintains second-strike capability through its own nuclear triad, which includes the Agni series of missiles (land-based), INS Arihant-class nuclear submarines, and bombers.
5. United Kingdom and France — Both have nuclear deterrent forces based on submarine-launched missiles and strategic bombers, providing them with second-strike capabilities.

These nations maintain second-strike capability as part of their strategy to deter nuclear attacks, ensuring that even in the worst-case scenario, they can deliver a devastating counterattack.

Why China Is Hesitant to Fulfill Pakistan’s Demand

China’s reluctance to grant Pakistan second-strike nuclear capability is rooted in several strategic and geopolitical considerations:

Regional Stability and Escalation Risks: Granting Pakistan second-strike capabilities could dramatically alter the security balance in South Asia. India, which already possesses second-strike capability, views Pakistan’s request as a direct challenge to its security. This move could lead to an arms race in the region, further destabilizing an already volatile environment.

Geopolitical Implications: China has always maintained a delicate balancing act in its relationships with both Pakistan and India. While it has supported Pakistan as part of its broader strategic alliance, especially in countering Indian influence in the region, China also seeks to avoid a direct confrontation with India, a rising global power with its own nuclear arsenal. Providing Pakistan with enhanced nuclear capabilities could provoke a hostile response from India, further complicating China’s relations with its neighbor.

International Scrutiny: The global nonproliferation regime, led by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), frowns upon the expansion of nuclear capabilities in unstable regions. China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has traditionally been cautious in its nuclear dealings to avoid antagonizing the international community. Supplying Pakistan with second-strike capability could attract significant criticism from the West and other nuclear-armed states, who may view it as an act that destabilizes the entire region.

Nuclear Technology Sensitivity: Second-strike capabilities, particularly those that involve submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) or advanced missile defense systems, are highly sensitive technologies. These systems require sophisticated infrastructure and long-term investment, and their transfer can provoke serious security concerns for both the supplying and receiving nations. China’s reluctance to transfer such capabilities is thus also a matter of national security, as it involves handing over highly sensitive military technology that could eventually be used in ways that may not align with China’s broader strategic goals.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Ambitions

Pakistan’s insistence on obtaining second-strike capabilities stems from two primary motivations:

Defensive Strategy Against India: Pakistan’s longstanding rivalry with India has always been a central driver of its military strategy. Pakistan has been concerned about the possibility of India launching a "first strike" against its nuclear assets, which could decisively tilt the military balance in favor of India. By securing second-strike capability, Pakistan seeks to ensure that it can retaliate even if its initial nuclear forces are destroyed, preserving the credibility of its deterrence.

Increasing Strategic Leverage: Pakistan’s military is keen to bolster its standing in regional geopolitics, particularly with its growing reliance on Chinese military and economic support. The demand for second-strike capability is seen as a way for Pakistan to enhance its bargaining position vis-à-vis China and other global powers, ensuring that it is not sidelined in the region’s power dynamics.

The unfolding standoff between Pakistan and China over nuclear demands highlights the complex and evolving nature of global security and alliances. While the two countries have long presented their relationship as "ironclad," this latest development underscores the strains and competing interests that exist beneath the surface. As Pakistan pushes for greater nuclear capabilities to ensure its strategic deterrence, China is hesitant to accede to these demands, fearing the regional and international repercussions. The outcome of this dispute will have far-reaching implications for the security dynamics of South Asia and could significantly alter the balance of power in the region. The world will be watching closely to see how this delicate issue is resolved.