The Evolving Governance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria

 Every autumn, as farmers in Idlib Province, Syria, gather their olive harvest, they face a familiar sight: representatives from the local tax authority stationed at oil presses, collecting a mandated 5% levy on olive oil production. Even in years of poor harvests, this tax remains a non-negotiable obligation for farmers. The collectors work under the civilian administration established by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that led the overthrow of the Assad regime and has governed much of opposition-held Idlib since 2017.

A Pragmatic Yet Controversial Administration

HTS introduced the olive oil tax in 2019 as part of a broader revenue-generating strategy, which has included levies on trade, crops, and services. While these measures have sparked protests and occasional violence, the administration has persisted, steadily building a reputation for pragmatism and financial management. Through taxes, monopolized services, and licensing programs, HTS has funded both civil services and its military operations, creating an administration that, in many ways, mirrors that of a conventional government.

The group governs Idlib through a civilian authority comprising 11 ministries. This structure allows HTS to focus on its military goals while maintaining a semblance of governance over the agrarian and densely populated region. However, its methods are not without criticism. The group's tight control over decisions—even those involving humanitarian aid—has raised concerns about whether this model could scale effectively to govern a larger, more complex nation.

Balancing Ideology and Practical Governance

Once rooted in the hardline ideologies of groups like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, HTS has undergone a significant transformation since 2016. While it still enforces conservative Islamic practices, its approach is markedly less severe than that of its predecessors. For instance, alcohol sales are banned, but personal consumption is not aggressively policed, and public smoking is permitted. Gender-segregated schools and free Quranic education coexist with more modern initiatives, such as the construction of shopping malls that challenge conservative objections.

HTS has also sought to integrate itself into local communities, often leaving existing authorities in place, particularly in areas with religious minorities. This approach reflects a shift toward pragmatism and a focus on establishing legitimacy rather than imposing extreme ideological rule.

Revenue Generation and Military Reorganization

HTS’s financial model is both innovative and controversial. It generates substantial revenue through customs duties at border crossings, monopolized services like fuel and electricity, and taxes on trade and small businesses. Experts estimate that its control of the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey generates over $15 million monthly, bolstering both governance and military operations.

Militarily, HTS has evolved into a structured force resembling a conventional army. Its leader, Ahmed Hussein al-Shara (Abu Mohammed al-Jolani), prioritized the establishment of a Military College in 2021. This institution, staffed by former Syrian military officers, has trained fighters to follow Western-style doctrines and organized them into specialized brigades. The group has also developed a drone unit, showcasing its adaptability in modern warfare.

Challenges Ahead

As HTS transitions from governing a single province to potentially leading a national government, questions remain about its ability to scale its governance model. The tight control that proved effective in Idlib might become a liability in a larger, more diverse country. Additionally, its designation as a terrorist organization by international bodies such as the United Nations and the United States complicates efforts to gain broader legitimacy and attract external support.

HTS’s evolution from a jihadist group to a quasi-government demonstrates its adaptability, but significant tensions persist within its ranks between pragmatic and hardline elements. As the group expands its influence, it will need to balance ideological commitments with the demands of governance in a post-Assad Syria.

A Calculated Path Forward

Despite its controversial methods, HTS has established a degree of stability and governance in Idlib that was previously absent in opposition-held Syria. Whether it can translate this localized success into national leadership remains uncertain. For now, the group’s focus on pragmatism, discipline, and financial ingenuity suggests it is determined to reshape its image while navigating the complexities of Syria’s fractured political landscape.