Kyiv/Moscow: Russian forces are steadily advancing on Pokrovsk, an eastern Ukrainian city of strategic importance, posing a significant threat to its supply lines nearly three years into Moscow’s full-scale invasion.
While Ukrainian troops continue to resist, the potential encirclement or capture of Pokrovsk could serve as a launching pad for Russian offensives in multiple directions, further pressuring Kyiv at a crucial moment in the war.
Pokrovsk Under Siege
Inside Pokrovsk, the situation remains dire. According to regional officials, only 7,000 residents remain from a pre-war population of 60,000. Essential services are dwindling—the city's last post office recently shut down, with mail now delivered via armored trucks.
Russian forces are already within artillery and drone strike range of a crucial highway that spans eastern Ukraine, forcing most vehicles to take unsafe backroad detours to access Pokrovsk.
Adding to the pressure, Moscow’s troops have reached the main rail line that connects Pokrovsk to Dnipro, Ukraine’s most critical logistical hub in the east.
Ukraine’s Defensive Struggle
Despite the mounting offensive, Ukrainian forces continue to fight fiercely. A deputy commander of Ukraine’s 59th Assault Brigade, identified by his military call sign “Phoenix”, described the dire conditions on the front:
“The enemy is attacking relentlessly, using small infantry groups willing to take severe casualties. They exploit the terrain and poor visibility to avoid detection by drones,” he told Reuters.
Pokrovsk’s strategic road and rail links make it a vital supply center for Ukrainian forces along the eastern frontline. However, the constant threat of Russian artillery and drone strikes has significantly limited its logistical role in recent months.
Russia’s Tactical Shift
Military analysts note that Russia’s Pokrovsk offensive marks a shift in its battlefield strategy. Unlike previous costly urban assaults, Russian forces now seek to bypass and encircle the city rather than engage in direct street fighting.
"For the first time, they appear to be conserving manpower," said Ukrainian military spokesman Viktor Trehubov.
Experts suggest two possible Russian advance routes from Pokrovsk:
- Westward into the open plains of Dnipropetrovsk region, where Ukraine has fewer natural defenses.
- Northward into a dense network of industrial towns, which would allow Moscow to pressure Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, two of Ukraine’s largest remaining strongholds in Donetsk.
If Pokrovsk falls, Russia could use it as a staging ground for further offensives, while also strengthening its position in potential future negotiations.
Kyiv Responds with Command Shakeup
In response to the escalating crisis, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday appointed General Mykhailo Drapatyi, the country’s land forces chief, to oversee operations in Pokrovsk and surrounding areas.
"Drapatyi is a highly respected commander," noted Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. "His leadership may improve coordination on the front, which has been a persistent challenge for Ukraine."
Russian Advances Face Resistance
Despite its gains, Russia’s progress remains slow and costly. Phoenix, the Ukrainian brigade commander, noted that Russian troops have recently adjusted their tactics—deploying small infantry squads deep into Ukrainian-held territory to set ambushes using anti-tank mines.
However, he also observed a slight reduction in assault intensity over the past month, with Russia firing less artillery than six months ago.
Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis
One of Ukraine’s key challenges is a shortage of troops. Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, explained that Russia’s small-unit assault strategy is difficult to counter because Ukraine lacks the manpower to comprehensively defend the front lines.
Kyiv has long faced recruitment and mobilization struggles, with rising reports of desertion and exhaustion among soldiers in its depleted ranks.
As the battle for Pokrovsk unfolds, its fate could shape the next phase of the war, influencing both military strategy and geopolitical negotiations.
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