Pakistan’s Economic Reality: A Harsh Wake-Up Call for Its Leadership

Islamabad, February 25, 2025 – Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has recently found himself at the center of controversy after making a bold and, as many argue, unrealistic economic assertion. In a moment of apparent overconfidence, Sharif reportedly placed a wager on Pakistan surpassing India economically—an assertion that has been met with widespread skepticism, particularly in light of historical economic data.

While political rhetoric often leans toward optimism, economic realities tell a different story. A comparative analysis of India and Pakistan’s growth trajectories reveals a widening gulf between the two nations—one that has been decades in the making.

A Look at the Numbers

Historically, India and Pakistan were on relatively equal footing in terms of GDP per capita. In the early years after independence, there were periods when Pakistan’s average citizen was wealthier than their Indian counterpart. However, this trend shifted in the mid-2000s, particularly during the rule of Pakistan’s former military leader Pervez Musharraf. His administration prioritized geopolitical maneuvering over economic progress, leading to stagnation in growth.

Fast forward to 2024, India’s GDP per capita stands at approximately $2,700—around 70% higher than Pakistan’s. While neither country has reached developed-nation status, India’s economic expansion has outpaced Pakistan’s significantly. Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further reinforce this disparity: India is projected to grow at 6.5% in 2024, while Pakistan is expected to grow at just 3.2%. This divergence suggests that the gap will only continue to widen.

Pakistan’s Structural Challenges

Beyond sheer numbers, the core issue lies in Pakistan’s governance and economic policies. Unlike India, which has leveraged its IT sector, foreign investments, and infrastructure development to drive growth, Pakistan continues to grapple with political instability, military influence over civilian government, and inconsistent economic policies.

While Prime Minister Sharif may seek to project confidence, experts argue that Pakistan’s leadership must first address structural flaws before making ambitious claims about surpassing India. Without long-term policy stability, economic reforms, and a commitment to development, any hope of overtaking its neighbor remains purely hypothetical.

The Road Ahead

For Pakistan to bridge the economic divide, it would not only require unprecedented growth but also a decline in India’s trajectory—an unlikely scenario given current global economic trends. As the data suggests, surpassing India in the foreseeable future is not just improbable but virtually impossible under Pakistan’s existing governance model.

While political wagers and rhetoric may fuel domestic narratives, the real challenge lies in implementing policies that drive sustainable progress. Until then, Pakistan’s leadership may need to reconsider its priorities rather than making wagers that reality cannot support.