Boko Haram Resurgence Raises Alarms in Northeast Nigeria

 Along the main road from Maiduguri’s airport into the heart of the city, the freshly repainted walls of a girls' college stand as a symbol of resilience against Boko Haram's enduring ideology, which denounces Western education.

Nearby, at a sun-scorched roundabout on the city’s outskirts, uniformed officials attempted to collect road levies from passing trucks—a snapshot of daily life in a region striving for normalcy after years of conflict.

Once the epicenter of Boko Haram’s brutal insurgency, Maiduguri has enjoyed relative calm since its last major attack in February 2021. At the height of the group’s 15-year campaign, bombings at sites like the Monday Market were tragically routine. Founded in 2002, Boko Haram escalated into a violent movement following the death of its founder, Mohammed Yusuf, in 2009, resulting in more than 36,000 deaths and the displacement of 2.2 million people. This month also marks the grim anniversary of the 2014 Chibok abductions, when 276 schoolgirls were kidnapped in an attack that shocked the world.

However, signs of renewed instability are emerging. Earlier this month, Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum warned that Boko Haram was regaining strength, staging attacks and kidnappings "almost daily without confrontation," and cautioned that authorities were "losing ground." His remarks came less than a month after gunmen attacked two military bases in Borno and an attempted ambush on his security convoy.

Responding to Zulum’s warning, a military spokesperson defended the armed forces’ efforts, stating, “The military is sacrificing a lot, and our efforts should be appreciated.” Information Minister Mohammed Idris echoed a familiar refrain, insisting the group had been “largely dissipated”—an assertion reminiscent of earlier claims that Boko Haram had been “technically defeated.”

Zulum, however, sharply rejected this optimism, labeling it as “naivety.”

While a multinational coalition involving Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon has succeeded in reclaiming significant territory, Boko Haram's resilience has been compounded by internal splits, most notably the rise of Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), a faction aligned with ISIS that has developed a more structured governance model, including taxing local communities.

Despite President Bola Tinubu’s 2024 pledge to “stamp out” Boko Haram, Ansaru, and other militant groups, insecurity persists. Analysts highlight ongoing struggles to contain jihadist movements in the so-called "Timbuktu Triangle"—an expansive region covering eastern Yobe and western Borno states.

January alone witnessed grave violence: reports indicated 40 farmers killed and multiple kidnappings attributed to Boko Haram and ISWAP. Compounding fears, a government-led resettlement program for displaced persons—warned against by the International Crisis Group—has left thousands vulnerable to renewed attacks by relocating them closer to conflict zones.

The situation remains volatile in Yobe. In September, 34 civilians were killed in a major attack, and in March, villagers in Gujba reported receiving threats from Boko Haram for alleged collaboration with the military—claims the government dismissed for lack of credible intelligence.

Regional security has also been further destabilized by Niger’s recent withdrawal from the multinational military coalition and the broader withdrawal of French and American forces from the Sahel. Although plans for a new, larger regional force have been announced, operational capacity remains limited.

In Maiduguri, frustration simmers. Some residents accuse the Tinubu administration of complacency and criticize national security officials for prioritizing politics over protection.

At a city clinic, an aid worker, requesting anonymity, watched student nurses bustle through the corridors and reflected grimly: “Everybody has forgotten Maiduguri.”