China’s Expanding Campaign of Transnational Repression: Hong Kong Activists Targeted in the UK

 In August last year, a troubling message circulated in an online forum for Hongkongers living in the United Kingdom. Tensions were already high: violent riots, inflamed by false claims that an asylum seeker had murdered children in Southport, had seen extremist groups targeting hotels housing refugees.

The message warned of fresh threats. Posts in far-right online communities had surfaced, claiming that Hongkongers were assisting refugees in "taking resources" from the UK. Among the individuals targeted was Finn Lau, a prominent activist in exile whose name and former addresses appeared on these lists. Sitting in his London office, Lau immediately recognized the danger: this was not just another wave of online hatred — it appeared to be something far more insidious.

Lau, 31, emerged as a leading figure in Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement, confronting Beijing's tightening grip. Today, exiled activists like Lau — educated, organized, and articulate — are among the most sought-after targets of China's transnational repression efforts. Bounties on their heads far exceed rewards typically offered for murderers. Their families back in Hong Kong face harassment, detention, and pressure.

Investigations by The Guardian in collaboration with the anti-racism group Hope Not Hate uncovered over 150 posts from 29 accounts across three days in August 2024. These posts sought to incite violence against Hong Kong exiles by directing far-right hostility toward them. Cybersecurity analysts reviewing the material noted stylistic similarities with major influence operations previously attributed to Chinese state security agencies.

As the UK government under Keir Starmer seeks deeper economic ties with Beijing, security minister Dan Jarvis reaffirmed: “National security is the first duty of this government. Any attempt by a foreign government to intimidate or harm critics overseas is wholly unacceptable.”

The posts — shared across platforms such as X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram — often targeted prominent far-right figures, including Tommy Robinson and officials from groups like Patriotic Alternative. Messages were stilted, with grammatical errors hinting at non-native English speakers. Several posts included precise addresses of Hong Kong pro-democracy organizations and activists, urging followers to "visit" them.

Notably, posts often appeared during Chinese working hours, and several accounts featured Chinese-language content or followed official Chinese government profiles. Experts at Graphika, a leading social media analysis firm, noted that the tactics echoed elements of Spamouflage Dragon, a Chinese online influence campaign identified in 2019, although direct attribution remains cautious.

According to Freedom House, China’s efforts represent "the most sophisticated, global, and comprehensive campaign of transnational repression in the world.” This pattern includes not just online incitement but also physical surveillance, abductions, and forced renditions.

Among those targeted is Nathan Law, another prominent activist who sought asylum in the UK after the imposition of Hong Kong’s draconian national security law in 2020. Following his asylum, Law faced escalating threats, including a HK$1 million bounty issued by Hong Kong authorities. In 2023, Law’s family members were detained and interrogated in Hong Kong, intensifying the psychological pressure.

This climate of fear intensified in May 2024 when British police disrupted a suspected surveillance operation believed to have targeted both Lau and Law. Just months later, the far-right incitement posts emerged.

“These attempts to incite violence are outrageous,” Law said. “They are designed not just to threaten individuals, but to fracture communities.”

Cybersecurity analysts emphasized the sophistication of such campaigns. Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center concluded with "high confidence" that Spamouflage Dragon activities are directed by China’s Ministry of Public Security. American prosecutors have charged 34 Chinese officers for running global repression schemes, accusing them of targeting Chinese dissidents worldwide.

Despite China's denials — with officials calling the allegations "pure fabrication" — evidence of Beijing’s coordinated overseas campaigns continues to mount. Under Xi Jinping, China’s “overseas struggle” strategy has expanded aggressively, including attempts to intimidate activists at the United Nations and alleged cyber-attacks against political figures in the US and UK.

The methods may not always involve overt violence. Instead, they rely on fear, isolation, and psychological pressure — tools that, in many cases, prove devastatingly effective.

As Lau and Law continue their work from exile, they remain resilient. Yet their experiences highlight a sobering reality: for Beijing's critics abroad, safety remains precarious, and the long reach of authoritarian repression knows few borders.