India Suspends Indus Water Treaty Cooperation in Response to Pahalgam Attack

New Delhi, April 25, 2025 – In a decisive response to the recent Pahalgam terror attack, India has announced five major diplomatic measures against Pakistan, the most significant being the decision to place the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) “in abeyance.” This unprecedented move, described by experts as the potential onset of a “water war” between the two nations, marks a significant shift in India’s approach to a treaty that has endured for over six decades despite persistent geopolitical tensions.

The IWT, signed in 1960 with mediation from the World Bank, allocates approximately 80% of the Indus River system’s waters to Pakistan, a critical resource for a country heavily reliant on agriculture. Pakistan, one of the world’s driest nations with an average annual rainfall of 240 mm, depends on the Indus Basin for 90% of its agricultural production, which drives 24% of its GDP, 45% of its employment, and over 60% of its exports. The treaty has historically been a cornerstone of transboundary water management, surviving three wars and numerous diplomatic frictions. However, India’s decision to pause cooperation under the treaty—carefully termed as “abeyance” rather than a suspension or revocation—signals a strategic escalation while leaving room for reinstatement should Pakistan address India’s concerns over cross-border terrorism.

Strategic Implications of the Decision

India’s measured language reflects a calculated approach: the treaty is not terminated, but cooperation mechanisms, including the free flow of data and information, have been halted. This cessation could severely impact Pakistan’s river management, exacerbating an already dire water situation. Last month, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned of a 35% water shortage in Punjab and Sindh—Pakistan’s key agricultural regions—amid an extended dry spell with below-average rainfall. Without Indian data, Pakistan’s ability to manage its water resources effectively may be further compromised, potentially leading to a major crisis in the coming years.

The move follows India’s development of infrastructure to regulate water flows, including dams and barrages in Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, as well as recently constructed canals designed to redirect water with precision. Historically, even during wartime, India refrained from altering water flows due to technical and diplomatic constraints. Now, with the capacity to control these flows, India has signaled its readiness to leverage this strategic asset, potentially closing dam gates and reducing water supply to Pakistan. Such actions could precipitate crop failures, drinking water shortages, and public unrest, placing Pakistan’s military in a challenging position to maintain order.

Broader Diplomatic Measures

Beyond the IWT, India’s diplomatic offensive includes halting medical travel for Pakistani citizens seeking affordable treatment in Indian hospitals. This measure will impact thousands, including those awaiting critical procedures like heart surgeries, effectively severing a vital humanitarian lifeline. These steps, taken without direct military engagement, underscore India’s intent to pressure Pakistan economically and socially, compelling it to address the perpetrators of the Pahalgam attack and curb cross-border terrorism.

Pakistan’s Dependence on the Indus

The Indus River, originating in the Himalayas and joined by five rivers flowing through India before merging, forms the backbone of Pakistan’s agrarian economy. The treaty’s suspension threatens this lifeline, particularly as Pakistan’s dependence on external water resources stands at 76%. The potential closure of dam gates could have immediate and severe consequences, amplifying existing vulnerabilities in a nation already grappling with water scarcity.

International and Domestic Reactions

Pakistan is expected to seek recourse through international organizations, likely framing India’s decision as a treaty violation, though the IWT does not explicitly allow unilateral revocation. India’s use of “abeyance” provides a diplomatic buffer, signaling a conditional pause rather than a permanent breach. Analysts anticipate heightened tensions, with the possibility of Pakistan facing a humanitarian crisis if water flows are significantly curtailed.

India’s actions reflect a broader strategy to recalibrate its relationship with Pakistan, prioritizing national security while leveraging its upstream control over shared resources. As the situation unfolds, the international community will closely monitor the implications of this historic shift, both for bilateral relations and the broader framework of transboundary water governance.