Political Uncertainty in Bangladesh: Muhammad Yunus' Controversial Leadership and China Outreach

 DHAKA, BANGLADESH: Bangladesh, once celebrated as a thriving democracy, finds itself under an unelected caretaker government led by Muhammad Yunus, the nation’s Chief Advisor. Since his return to Dhaka in August 2024—following widespread protests and the removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—Yunus has taken on a role far beyond his mandate, governing the country without ever being elected.

Despite his advisory position, Yunus has increasingly asserted executive authority, prompting concerns about the legitimacy of his leadership. His recent diplomatic moves, particularly a state visit to China, have raised further questions about Bangladesh’s geopolitical alignment and economic strategy.

China Over India: A Shift in Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy?

Traditionally, Bangladeshi leaders prioritize their first official foreign visit to India, given the deep economic and strategic ties between the two neighbors. However, Yunus broke with precedent by traveling to China for a four-day visit, where he met with President Xi Jinping and engaged with Chinese business executives.

During the visit, Yunus chaired an investment summit in Beijing, where he made controversial remarks regarding India’s northeastern states—Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura—collectively known as the Seven Sisters.

"The seven states of Northeast India are landlocked. They have no access to the ocean, so Bangladesh is their only gateway to the sea," Yunus stated. He went further, describing Bangladesh as an "extension of the Chinese economy" and inviting Chinese firms to expand operations in Bangladesh to serve both local and Chinese markets.

Questionable Economic Assertions and Strategic Implications

Yunus’ statement regarding the Seven Sisters was met with criticism, particularly his claim that these states lack access to the ocean and are reliant on Bangladesh. While these states are indeed landlocked, they remain an integral part of India, which has a vast 7,500-kilometer coastline, granting them direct access to the Indian Ocean.

His assertion that Bangladesh serves as the sole "guardian of the ocean" in the region was also met with skepticism, given that India’s coastline is nearly ten times longer than Bangladesh’s.

Beyond geographical misrepresentations, Yunus’ remarks suggest a strategic shift toward deeper economic integration with China. He openly encouraged Chinese firms to invest in Bangladesh, emphasizing that production costs in Bangladesh could be lower than in China itself.

"You can produce in Bangladesh and sell to China," Yunus stated. "Any kind of business is welcome."

This economic outreach to Beijing coincides with Bangladesh’s worsening financial crisis, characterized by:

• Rising inflation

• Shrinking GDP growth

• High unemployment

• Increased religious and ethnic tensions

• Widespread corruption

• Soaring external debt

Bangladesh’s Growing Financial Dependence on China

Bangladesh currently owes more than $6 billion to China, raising concerns that Yunus’ diplomatic push may be aimed at securing additional Chinese financial assistance. His statements in Beijing suggest that Dhaka is positioning itself as a strategic economic partner for China, potentially at the expense of long-standing ties with India.

Yunus’ visit to China also drew attention from Pakistan, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reaching out to Yunus following his trip. The two leaders previously met in December 2024 and appear to be strengthening bilateral ties, raising questions about Bangladesh’s evolving alliances.

India Maintains Distance from Yunus’ Government

Despite multiple diplomatic engagements between India and Bangladesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has yet to meet Yunus, a stark contrast to his frequent engagements with Sheikh Hasina’s government. India has reportedly received multiple requests for a bilateral meeting, but given Yunus’ unelected status, Modi is under no obligation to grant such a meeting.

Both nations will, however, participate in the upcoming Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit in Bangkok on April 4. While Yunus and Modi will be present, a bilateral meeting between them remains unlikely, particularly in light of Yunus’ recent statements.

Bangladesh’s Uncertain Path Forward

Muhammad Yunus’ tenure as Bangladesh’s de facto leader continues to raise serious questions about democratic governance, economic policy, and foreign relations. His pivot toward China, coupled with Dhaka’s economic struggles, suggests that Bangladesh is at a critical crossroads.

Whether Yunus can stabilize Bangladesh’s political and economic landscape—or whether his leadership will deepen the country’s challenges—remains an open question. However, his latest diplomatic maneuvers signal a potential realignment in South Asian geopolitics, with Dhaka moving closer to Beijing while India watches from a distance.