Philippines Midterm Elections Begin Amid Marcos–Duterte Rift and High-Stakes Senate Race

 Manila – Millions of Filipinos headed to the polls on Monday in a pivotal midterm election that is widely regarded as a referendum on the deepening political rift between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his embattled vice president, Sara Duterte. The outcome is expected to shape the nation’s political landscape for years to come — and may determine Duterte’s political survival.

Over 18,000 elective positions are being contested, ranging from congressional seats to key local government offices. However, it is the race for the 12 Senate seats that holds the most far-reaching consequences. The senators elected will serve as part of the jury in Duterte’s impeachment trial, tentatively scheduled for July 2025, where a guilty verdict could permanently disqualify her from holding public office.

High Stakes for Duterte

At a rally last week, Vice President Duterte struck a defiant tone, calling the charges against her politically motivated. “Our name has been dragged through the mud,” she said. “Who really benefits if the Duterte family is erased? Certainly not the Filipino people.”

The vice president’s impeachment — initiated in February — stems from allegations of corruption and claims that she discussed an assassination plot against President Marcos. Duterte has denied any wrongdoing, insisting her remarks about the plot were purely hypothetical.

The stakes for her political future are significant: to survive impeachment, she must secure at least nine votes from the 24-seat Senate.

Adding to the drama, her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, was arrested and transferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague in March to face charges of crimes against humanity for his controversial anti-drug campaign. Despite his detention, he remains a mayoral candidate in his stronghold of Davao City, where early polling indicates strong support for his return.

Marcos and Duterte Camps Vie for Influence

President Marcos has actively backed seven Senate candidates currently polling in the top 12. Four others are aligned with Vice President Duterte, including Camille Villar, a television personality, and Senator Imee Marcos, the president’s sister, both of whom were formally “adopted” into the Duterte-aligned PDP–Laban party on Saturday. The move was described by the party as a strategic effort to “protect the vice-president against impeachment.”

This Senate contest is being seen not only as a test of strength for both political dynasties but also as a precursor to the 2028 presidential race, with Duterte seen as a potential contender — should she weather the current political storm.

Election Security and Pre-Vote Violence

With political tensions high and stakes soaring, Philippine security forces have mobilized extensively to ensure a peaceful voting process. More than 163,000 police officers have been deployed nationwide, supported by personnel from the military, fire services, and other agencies.

Despite these measures, the run-up to election day has been marred by violence. At least 16 individuals — including a village chief, a polling officer, and a city council candidate — have reportedly been killed in politically motivated attacks. On Saturday, two members of an alleged armed group, including a municipal councillor candidate, were shot dead in a clash with security forces in Mindanao’s autonomous Muslim region, long considered a flashpoint for election-related conflict.

Meanwhile, in Cebu, police arrested a group of men transporting ₱441 million (approx. $8 million) in undeclared cash — a serious violation of election law aimed at curbing vote-buying.

Looking Ahead

As voting concludes, all eyes will be on the Senate results — and whether the Duterte faction can hold off what they perceive as a concerted effort to erase their political future. For the Marcos administration, the election offers an opportunity to consolidate control and neutralize a powerful rival, while voters navigate a choice between continuity and confrontation.

The coming weeks promise to be politically charged, with the country’s two most prominent dynasties battling for supremacy not just at the ballot box, but in the very institutions of Philippine democracy.