Power, Deterrence, and Fallout: The Rising Risk of Conflict Between India and Pakistan

 As geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan escalate once again, Islamabad has issued a stark nuclear warning, declaring that it will respond with the “full spectrum of power” should India launch a military strike. The threat comes amid growing concerns of a strategic confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

The provocative statement from Pakistan arrives amid speculation that India may be preparing a punitive response to recent cross-border hostilities. In what experts describe as dangerously heightened rhetoric, Pakistan's military leadership has reiterated its willingness to use nuclear weapons in retaliation.

This comes at a time when India is being highlighted for its formidable nuclear capability. India is one of only four nations globally to possess a fully operational nuclear triad—the ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, air, and sea. This triad ensures that even if India were to suffer a first strike, it maintains a powerful second-strike capability, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles from its stealthy Arihant-class submarines.

In a potential doomsday scenario, Pakistan’s activation of nuclear assets would likely be met by India's layered and highly advanced missile defense systems. These include:

• Prithvi Air Defence for high-altitude interception

• Advanced Air Defence (AAD) systems for low-altitude targets

• Akash missile systems for medium-range aerial threats

• The Russian-origin S-400 system for comprehensive air defence, including cruise and ballistic missile threats

India’s extensive satellite surveillance and intelligence network has mapped Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure in detail, including land-based missile silos at key military garrisons such as Akro, Gujarala, Kuzdar, Pano Akil, and Sargodha. Nuclear-capable aircraft are believed to be based at Minhas, Shahbaz, Rafiqui, and Masroor air bases.

Commenting on the imbalance in conventional military power, an analyst said:

"If you compare the Pakistan Army and the Indian Army in terms of conventional strength—air power, land power, naval power—you will find that the Indian Army is twice as strong."

He added that Pakistan, unable to match India conventionally, frequently resorts to nuclear rhetoric as a strategic deterrent.

The nuclear brinkmanship recalls historical precedents—most notably the 1999 Kargil conflict, where India’s military recaptured occupied territory in a high-altitude war while ignoring Pakistan’s veiled nuclear threats. Former Defence Minister George Fernandes famously stated at the time:

“There will be no Pakistan left when we have responded.”

That assertion, while controversial, underscores India’s long-held stance on its nuclear doctrine of assured retaliation. Today, that doctrine remains intact. Any nuclear misadventure by Pakistan would likely trigger a devastating Indian counterstrike.

“Pakistan may speak of full spectrum deterrence, but India’s response is spectrum-shattering,” concludes the report. “The first strike is no protection for Islamabad. It will only seal its fate.”

As regional and global observers monitor developments closely, diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation remain critical. For now, both nations remain on edge—armed, alert, and dangerously close to the brink.