Bolivia Heads to Crucial Election Amid Soaring Inflation and Morales’ Absence

 Bolivians will head to the polls on Sunday in a general election overshadowed by soaring inflation—the highest in four decades—and the absence of former President Evo Morales, who has been barred from running.

Leading the race are conservative opposition figures Samuel Doria Medina, a prominent business magnate, and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, a former president. Yet, neither commands more than 30% support, according to opinion polls, with nearly a quarter of voters still undecided. For the first time in almost twenty years, surveys suggest that the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS), co-founded by Morales, may be on the brink of defeat. Support for MAS-aligned and other left-leaning candidates currently trails at around 10%, according to the latest Ipsos CEISMORI survey.

Under electoral rules, a candidate must secure at least 40% of the vote with a 10-point lead to avoid a runoff. If no contender meets this threshold, a second round will be held on October 19. Alongside the presidency, voters will elect 26 senators and 130 deputies, with the new administration scheduled to take office on November 8. Polls will open at 8 a.m. local time (1200 GMT) and close at 4 p.m., with preliminary results expected by 9 p.m.

Analysts describe the contest as a “crossroads moment” for Bolivia, with no clear MAS candidate dominating the field. "This election could redefine the country’s political trajectory," said Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche of the International Crisis Group.

The fragile state of Bolivia’s economy looms large over the campaign. Inflation has surged past regional averages, while shortages of fuel and foreign currency have deepened public discontent. Annual inflation nearly doubled from 12% in January to 23% in June, forcing some Bolivians to turn to cryptocurrencies as a hedge. "Prices of the basic food basket are going up fast. Suddenly the math doesn’t add up anymore," said economist Roger Lopez, noting the strain on the country’s vast informal workforce.

Public frustration has eroded MAS’s traditional base. "Every year the situation has got worse under this government," said Silvia Morales, a 30-year-old retail worker in La Paz who previously supported MAS but now plans to back a center-right candidate. Carlos Blanco Casas, a 60-year-old teacher, echoed the sentiment: "This election feels hopeful. We need a change of direction."

Quiroga has campaigned on promises of “radical change,” pledging sharp cuts to public spending and a realignment of foreign policy away from traditional alliances with Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. His rival, Doria Medina, has taken a more moderate approach, vowing to stabilize the economy within 100 days of taking office.

On the left, the vote remains fragmented. Eduardo del Castillo, the official MAS candidate backed by outgoing President Luis Arce, faces competition from Senate President Andronico Rodriguez, who has distanced himself from MAS to run independently. Morales, now 69, has called for a boycott of the election, but analysts say his influence is waning.

Despite political turbulence, there is broad consensus on the importance of this election. "There is widespread support for these elections," said Calanche. "Most Bolivians see them as key to leading the country toward economic recovery."