Quad’s Future Uncertain as Trump’s Policy Strains India–US Relations

New Delhi: The future of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue — better known as the Quad — appears increasingly uncertain amid signs of growing friction between India and the United States.

Originally revived in 2017 by then-U.S. President Donald Trump to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region, the informal strategic alliance includes India, Japan, Australia, and the United States. Often described as the “Asian NATO,” the Quad was elevated to a leaders’ summit level under President Joe Biden’s administration. However, reports now suggest that Trump may skip the upcoming Quad summit scheduled to be held in India this November — a development that has cast doubt over the alliance’s direction.

At the heart of this unease lies the deterioration of India–U.S. relations, which experts describe as being at their lowest point in the 21st century. Tensions have deepened following a series of controversial moves by Washington, including Trump’s recent gesture of welcoming Pakistan’s Army Chief to the White House just weeks after the India–Pakistan conflict — a move viewed in New Delhi as provocative.

Adding to the strain, the United States has imposed the highest-ever tariffs on Indian goods, and the absence of a bilateral trade deal has further weakened the economic foundation underpinning the partnership.

India’s Central Role in the Quad

India is not merely a participant in the Quad — it is its strategic cornerstone. As the world’s most populous democracy and its fourth-largest economy and military power, India’s presence is vital to the credibility, strength, and depth of the alliance.

Diplomatic observers have warned that losing India’s engagement would be disastrous for the Quad, both symbolically and strategically. India’s participation is central to balancing China’s growing assertiveness and to maintaining stability across the Indo-Pacific.

Emerging Signs of a Shift

Recent U.S. moves have raised questions about Washington’s long-term commitment to India’s central role. In November, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegsted held a meeting in Kuala Lumpur with his counterparts from Japan, Australia, and the Philippines — notably excluding India. The gathering established a framework for the Indo-Pacific Security Leaders Cooperation Council, signaling that the U.S. may be exploring alternative security alignments in the region.

Analysts interpret this as a strategic overture toward the Philippines — but also a subtle message to India. However, many experts point out that Manila cannot match India’s military capabilities, geopolitical influence, or commitment to Indo-Pacific security cooperation.

India and the Indo-Pacific Vision

The concept of the “Indo-Pacific” itself underscores India’s importance. The United States officially adopted the term during Trump’s tenure, shifting its strategic focus from the “Asia-Pacific” to the “Indo-Pacific” in 2013 — recognizing the Indian Ocean and India’s role as equal partners in ensuring regional stability.

Without India, the Indo-Pacific vision — and by extension, the Quad — loses coherence and meaning.

The ‘America First’ Factor

Yet, Trump’s America First approach has disrupted the spirit of multilateral cooperation that originally defined the Quad. His transactional style of diplomacy and reluctance to invest in long-term alliances have complicated India–U.S. engagement.

Experts warn that if bilateral relations continue to weaken, the Quad will struggle to reach its full strategic potential. Without India’s strength and partnership, the alliance cannot effectively function as a counterbalance to China’s regional ambitions.

“The Quad’s credibility and influence rest heavily on India’s participation,” one international political analyst noted. “If Trump continues to alienate New Delhi, he risks weakening one of the most important coalitions aimed at preserving stability in the Indo-Pacific.”