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Is climate change making turbulence worse?

A Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore experienced severe turbulence on Tuesday that resulted in the death of British man Geoff Kitchen.

Turbulence of that intensity is rare but recent studies have shown that climate change could be increasing the risk.To know if climate change had a role to play in what happened to the London to Singapore flight we first have to understand what turbulence it was experiencing. Turbulence can be described simply as the irregular movement of the air which creates currents. When these currents interact with the plane it can cause it to roll, pitch or suddenly drop in altitude.

There are different reasons why a plane may experience turbulence – from air flowing over mountains to clouds and bad weather. It is still not known exactly which of these flight SQ321 was dealing with, but based on the weather forecast it is likely to have been either from a phenomenon called "clear air" turbulence (CAT) or from thunderstorms.Clear air" turbulence occurs when there is a change of wind direction in or around the jet stream - a fast flowing "river" of air that is typically found at 30,000-60,000ft.


Last year scientists from Reading University found that severe turbulence, from this clean air phenomenon, had increased 55% between 1979 and 2020 in the North Atlantic. They said that warmer air from increasing greenhouse gas emissions was changing the wind speed in the jet stream. This type of turbulence is notoriously difficult for pilots to navigate. Although meteorological organisations provide warnings of where it may be found, during flight it cannot be picked up on their radar systems or seen.

Prof Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, who co-authored the study told the BBC last year: "We should be investing in improved turbulence forecasting and detection systems, to prevent the rougher air from translating into bumpier flights in the coming decades."

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