Political Shift in Delhi: BJP’s Rise and AAP’s Decline

Unni Thalakkasseri 🖎, 

The resounding comeback of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi's assembly elections marks a historic moment in the political landscape of the capital. While the scale of BJP’s victory is noteworthy, the election outcome is equally significant for the decisive unseating of an overconfident Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by Arvind Kejriwal. Allegations of corruption surrounding the liquor policy, the controversy over Kejriwal’s "Sheesh Mahal," and the arrests of multiple AAP ministers collectively undermined the foundation upon which Kejriwal’s political appeal was built.

In the 70-member assembly, the BJP secured a commanding 48 seats, while AAP managed to retain only 22, leaving the Congress without a single seat for the third consecutive time. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity remained undiminished. His unwavering commitment to uplifting marginalized communities, empowering women, and executing direct welfare measures solidified a loyal voter base. Complemented by a meticulously structured election strategy led by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the BJP’s campaign left little room for complacency.

Despite being embroiled in legal troubles and temporarily stepping aside from governance, Kejriwal resumed his campaign efforts upon securing bail. With the BJP leadership focusing on elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Jammu & Kashmir, Kejriwal capitalized on the opportunity to conduct an extensive door-to-door campaign across Delhi’s districts. His early candidate announcements reflected confidence in AAP’s prospects, especially given the perceived disarray within the Delhi BJP. In the weeks leading up to the election, momentum appeared to favor AAP.

However, a turning point emerged following the BJP’s unexpected triumphs in Haryana and Maharashtra, defying political forecasts. Gaining renewed confidence, the BJP intensified its campaign with Prime Minister Modi taking a frontline role in energizing party workers. Key policy announcements, including a new pay commission and significant income tax relief in Budget 2025, played a pivotal role in consolidating middle-class support for the party. When Kejriwal challenged the BJP to announce its chief ministerial candidate, the party strategically refrained, focusing instead on comprehensive campaign management.

Prime Minister Modi set the tone for the election by branding AAP as “AAP-da” (a play on the Hindi word for disaster). In a direct appeal to Delhi’s electorate, he issued a letter urging them to give the BJP an opportunity to lead the capital into a new era. His three high-energy rallies towards the campaign’s end galvanized the party’s grassroots network.

A calculated deployment of BJP’s top ministers, MPs, and senior leaders ensured systematic voter outreach. Each leader was assigned specific constituencies, with a clear mandate to increase BJP’s vote count by at least 20,000 per seat and secure a 50% vote share at every polling booth. Detailed booth-level analysis enabled targeted engagement with voters of diverse backgrounds, particularly those with roots in other states. This highly coordinated effort was driven by unsung party workers operating at the grassroots level.

While AAP remained a formidable contender as election day approached, the entry of an aggressive Congress campaign altered the dynamics. Although the Congress was not positioned as a serious competitor in Delhi, its leadership sought to regain lost ground, not only in the capital but across other states where AAP had eroded its voter base.

Rahul Gandhi initiated a direct attack on Arvind Kejriwal, setting the stage for an escalating offensive by Congress leaders. Ajay Maken labeled Kejriwal “Farjiwal,” while Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra openly challenged him to drink Yamuna River water, highlighting concerns over the city's water quality. Sandeep Dikshit cited 14 Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) reports to dispute Kejriwal’s claims regarding Delhi’s healthcare advancements.

Congress was acutely aware that Kejriwal’s electoral success had been built on its traditional voter base. Determined to reclaim lost ground, the party actively worked to erode AAP’s support. Post-election analysis indicates that Congress played a crucial role in influencing outcomes in 14 key constituencies, including Timarpur, Badli, Nangloi Jat, Rajendra Nagar, New Delhi, Jangpura, Kasturba Nagar, and Mehrauli. This strategic assault significantly weakened AAP’s prospects.

Kejriwal, already under immense pressure from 13 years of incumbency and mounting corruption allegations, struggled to counter Congress’s offensive. His attempts to sideline the Congress campaign by leveraging INDIA bloc allies proved futile. Unlike in 2013, when AAP’s anti-corruption stance resonated with voters, and in 2020, when populist welfare measures secured support, Kejriwal’s 2025 campaign lacked a compelling narrative. The liquor policy scandal and criticism over his lavish residence overshadowed his messaging. In a desperate attempt to regain traction, Kejriwal resorted to making last-minute promises, but they failed to gain traction.

Meanwhile, the BJP maintained a disciplined and forward-looking campaign. Key policy commitments, such as the cleanup of the Yamuna River and the development of a riverfront, were central to its voter outreach. Additionally, BJP leaders assured voters that existing welfare benefits, including financial aid for women, would not be withdrawn. This approach resonated with Delhi’s electorate, leading to a significant electoral shift.

The election results underscored BJP’s strategic depth and its ability to penetrate traditionally AAP-dominated constituencies. Of the 12 Scheduled Caste candidates fielded by BJP, four emerged victorious. Among 22 OBC candidates, 16 secured wins. A deeper analysis of voter demographics revealed that BJP’s candidates from diverse regional backgrounds performed exceptionally well: four out of six Purvanchali candidates won, 12 out of 14 Haryanvi candidates emerged victorious, and two out of three Uttarakhand-origin candidates secured seats. BJP’s dominance extended to 25 out of 35 seats with a significant Purvanchali voter presence. Even in AAP’s strongholds, BJP made inroads, winning four out of seven key “jhuggi” seats, including Timarpur, Badli, New Delhi, and RK Puram. Notably, Madan Bisht triumphed in Mustafabad, a Muslim-majority constituency.

This decisive BJP victory is poised to have far-reaching implications for national politics. The Congress, emboldened by its role in AAP’s defeat, is likely to assert itself more forcefully within the INDIA bloc. Meanwhile, political dynamics in both Punjab and Delhi will undergo substantial shifts. As Prime Minister Modi declared in his post-election address, his government remains resolute in its mission to hold corrupt leaders accountable and recover misappropriated funds. The future of Kejriwal and his party now hangs in the balance, as Delhi’s political landscape enters a new era.