European Leaders Poised to Boost Defense Spending Amid U.S. Uncertainty

 Brussels, March 6 – European Union leaders are set to reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine and increase defense spending at a high-stakes summit on Thursday, following the suspension of U.S. military aid to Kyiv by President Donald Trump. The move has intensified concerns that Europe can no longer depend on American protection.

The 27 EU leaders will be joined by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Brussels, though the meeting could face resistance from Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a Trump ally, who may veto a unanimous statement in support of Kyiv. While leaders are expected to voice solidarity and outline plans for enhanced defense investments, analysts note that Europe is unlikely to fully compensate for the loss of U.S. military assistance—Washington accounted for over 40% of Ukraine’s military aid last year, according to NATO.

Shifting Security Landscape

The summit unfolds amid sweeping shifts in European defense policy, driven by fears that a resurgent Russia could target an EU member state next. French President Emmanuel Macron underscored the urgency of the moment in a national address on Wednesday, stressing that Europe must prepare for a scenario in which the U.S. does not intervene.

"I want to believe that the United States will stand by us. But we have to be ready if that is not the case," Macron stated. In a notable escalation, he signaled France’s openness to discussions on extending its nuclear deterrent to European partners, calling Russia an existential threat to the continent.

"Faced with this world of danger, remaining a spectator would be madness," he warned.

Financial Commitments and Policy Shifts

European nations have already begun adjusting their defense policies in response to the geopolitical uncertainty. On Tuesday, Germany’s prospective governing coalition agreed to relax borrowing limits to enable billions of euros in additional defense spending. Meanwhile, the European Commission has proposed measures that could unlock up to €800 billion ($860 billion) for European defense initiatives, including €150 billion ($160 billion) in loans for EU governments.

"This provides more fiscal space for military expenditure and facilitates joint procurement at a European level," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday. "And crucially, it also benefits Ukraine."

Trump’s Stance Raises European Alarm

Trump’s shifting position—from unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine to a more conciliatory approach toward Moscow—has unsettled European policymakers. His previous remarks suggesting that NATO allies failing to meet defense spending targets might not receive U.S. protection have only deepened concerns.

Diplomats expect EU leaders to broadly endorse the Commission’s defense proposals and push for swift legislative action. However, the final details will require extensive negotiations among member states.

Divisions Over Ukraine Aid

While most EU leaders are keen to reassure Zelenskiy of Europe’s continued backing following his contentious Oval Office meeting with Trump, divisions persist over future military aid commitments. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has proposed setting a clear financial target for military assistance to Ukraine this year, but consensus remains elusive.

Hungary’s Orbán has signaled opposition, citing "strategic differences" in a letter to European Council President Antonio Costa. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, another skeptic of military aid to Ukraine, has linked his support for summit conclusions to the reinstatement of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, a critical energy route for Slovakia that Kyiv halted earlier this year.

"If that is included, we have no reason to block the conclusions," Fico stated before the summit.

As EU leaders convene, the challenge remains balancing defense commitments, maintaining unity on Ukraine, and preparing for a future in which Europe may need to take greater responsibility for its own security.