Himachal’s Lahaul-Spiti, Uttarakhand’s Chamoli Most Avalanche-Prone: Study

 Dehradun, March 18 (PTI) – Lahaul and Spiti in Himachal Pradesh and Chamoli in Uttarakhand have been identified as the most avalanche-prone districts in their respective states, according to a recent study analyzing avalanche vulnerability across 11 districts in the Indian Western Himalayas.

The study, conducted by researchers Akshay Singhal, M. Kavya, and Sanjeev K. Jha from the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Bhopal, attributes the increasing frequency of avalanches in the region to a combination of climate change, complex terrain, and rising human activities. Their findings, published in the journal Environment, Development and Sustainability, introduce a Combined Avalanche Vulnerability Index (CAVI) to assess risk levels.

Himachal More Vulnerable Than Uttarakhand

According to the CAVI analysis, Himachal Pradesh has the highest concentration of avalanche-prone districts, with Lahaul and Spiti ranking as the most vulnerable. In contrast, most districts in Uttarakhand fall into the moderate vulnerability category, with Chamoli identified as the most at risk.

"The CAVI shows that all highly vulnerable districts are located in Himachal Pradesh, while most of Uttarakhand's districts are moderately vulnerable," the authors stated. Among the least vulnerable districts, Shimla (Himachal Pradesh) and Pauri Garhwal (Uttarakhand) recorded the lowest risk levels.

The findings come in the wake of a tragic avalanche earlier this month in Chamoli’s Mana village, where a Border Roads Organisation (BRO) camp was struck, resulting in the deaths of eight workers.

Assessing Avalanche Risk: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptation

The study evaluated avalanche risks based on three key factors:

• Exposure: Determined by meteorological conditions such as snowfall, temperature, and precipitation. Lahaul and Spiti recorded the highest exposure.

• Sensitivity: Influenced by geographical features like terrain slope and population density, with Shimla emerging as the most sensitive district.

• Adaptive Capacity: Measured through socio-economic factors such as literacy rates, healthcare facilities, forest cover, and the presence of concrete housing. Rudraprayag in Uttarakhand was found to be the least adaptive.

Human Activities Increasing Avalanche Risks

Avalanches are estimated to claim 30–40 lives annually, disrupting infrastructure and blocking essential transport routes. While natural factors such as climate conditions and topography remain primary contributors, researchers caution that human interventions—rapid road construction, dam and tunnel projects, and the heavy movement of vehicles—are exacerbating the risks.

The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable development strategies and improved disaster preparedness in the vulnerable Himalayan regions.