India’s decision to effectively place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in cold storage has opened a significant strategic window, enabling accelerated development of key hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir. Projects such as Kishanganga, Ratle, and Pakal Dul are no longer viewed solely through the prism of energy generation, but are increasingly seen as instruments of geopolitical influence.
The response from Pakistan has been swift and pointed. The Pakistani government has labeled India’s move an “act of war,” while Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader Bilawal Bhutto issued a stark warning, stating that “either our water or their [India’s] blood will flow in the Sindhu [Indus].” Top Indian government officials suggest that the psychological impact is already evident, with Pakistan’s political leadership under pressure from domestic audiences over the potential regulation of western river flows by India.
By disengaging from the treaty’s traditional mechanisms, India now finds itself free to pursue its hydroelectric projects without regard for Pakistani objections at international forums. The Kishanganga, Ratle, and Pakal Dul projects together provide New Delhi not only enhanced hydropower capacity but also a formidable geopolitical tool.
The situation has been further inflamed by Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks on civilians in Pahalgam, prompting a recalibration of India’s approach. Going forward, strategic water management may serve as a counter-lever to military and terrorist provocations.
India has already made significant strides. The Kishanganga Hydro Electric Project, inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2018 in Bandipora, diverted water from the Jhelum River through a 23-kilometre tunnel. On the same day, Modi also laid the foundation stone for the 1,000 MW Pakal Dul Hydro Electric Project — the largest hydroelectric venture in Jammu and Kashmir and the Union Territory’s first storage project. With a height of 167 metres, Pakal Dul provides India with tangible control over water flow, beyond mere usage rights. The project is on track for completion by mid-2026.
Meanwhile, construction has advanced at the 850 MW Ratle Hydro Electric Project on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir. A major milestone was achieved last year with the successful diversion of the river through tunnels at Drabshalla in Kishtwar district, allowing for the excavation and dam construction to proceed.
The cumulative hydrological and strategic impact of these developments considerably strengthens India’s hand, enhancing its ability to recalibrate regional dynamics in response to Pakistan’s provocations.
As these projects move toward completion, they are poised to alter the geopolitical landscape of South Asia in significant and lasting ways.
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