Himanta Biswa Sarma Debunks Pakistan's ‘China-Brahmaputra Threat’ With Data-Driven Rebuttal

Guwahati/New Delhi:  In a firm and fact-based counter to Pakistan’s latest alarmist rhetoric, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Monday refuted claims suggesting that China could potentially block the Brahmaputra River’s flow to India. Terming the assertion a “manufactured scare narrative,” Sarma emphasized that the Brahmaputra is a river that “grows in India, not shrinks.”

His remarks came in response to a statement by Rana Ihsaan Afzal, a senior aide to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. In a televised interview, Afzal claimed that India’s recent move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty could prompt China to retaliate by blocking the Brahmaputra. “If India stops the flow to Pakistan, then China can also do the same. But if such things happen, the whole world will be at war,” Afzal warned on Geo News.

Chief Minister Sarma took to social media platform X to systematically dismantle the argument, calling it a “new scare tactic” following India’s decision to review the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty.

“Let’s dismantle this myth — not with fear, but with facts and national clarity,” Sarma wrote.

Brahmaputra: A River Strengthened Within India

Sarma underscored that China’s contribution to the Brahmaputra’s total flow is relatively limited — approximately 30–35%, primarily through glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall. The remaining 65–70% of the river’s volume is generated within India, fueled by the torrential monsoon rainfall across Northeast India and a vast network of tributaries.

Key Indian contributions include:

• Major tributaries: Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, and Kopili

• Regional inflows: Rivers from the Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills such as the Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi

Hydrological data supports this view:

• At the Indo-China border (Tuting), the Brahmaputra’s flow is around 2,000–3,000 m³/s

• In the Assam plains (e.g., Guwahati), this swells to 15,000–20,000 m³/s during the monsoon

“This is not a river India is dependent on at the upstream source—it is a powerful, rain-fed Indian river system that is strengthened and nourished after it enters Indian territory,” Sarma noted.

‘Chinese Threat’ Misplaced and Hypothetical

Sarma also dismissed speculation around China weaponizing Brahmaputra’s waters, highlighting that:

• Beijing has never issued any official threat to reduce Brahmaputra’s flow

• Any reduction in upstream flow could actually benefit India by mitigating annual floods in Assam, which regularly displace lakhs and damage infrastructure

He pointed out that this emerging narrative from Pakistan coincides with India asserting its sovereign rights over the Indus system—a treaty Pakistan has benefitted from disproportionately for over seven decades.

India Reclaims Its Sovereignty

“Pakistan, which has enjoyed 74 years of preferential access to Indian waters, is now panicking as India reclaims what is rightfully its own,” Sarma asserted.

He concluded by reminding Pakistan and the global community:

“The Brahmaputra is not controlled by a single source — it is powered by our geography, our monsoon, and our civilisational resilience.”

This direct, evidence-backed response from one of India’s key political leaders underscores a growing shift in India’s water diplomacy—moving from passive treaty adherence to assertive protection of national interests, all while maintaining transparency grounded in scientific facts.