Speculation Rises Over Xi Jinping’s Apparent Absence Amid Signs of Power Shift in Chinese Leadership

 New Delhi/Beijing – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s conspicuous absence from public view between May 21 and June 5 has triggered significant speculation regarding internal power dynamics within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). According to top intelligence sources cited by CNN-News18, Xi’s disappearance, though unusual in timing, may be part of a deeper realignment at the highest echelons of Chinese leadership.

Senior intelligence officials have suggested that while Xi retains his formal designations, including General Secretary of the CCP and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), his operational grip over the party, military, and economic decision-making is showing signs of erosion. Such a transition, they emphasize, is not unprecedented in Chinese politics. The CCP has historically sidelined prominent leaders — including those once at the pinnacle of power — by reducing their influence without formally removing them.

At present, real authority within China’s powerful military establishment is believed to rest with General Zhang Youxia, First Vice Chairman of the CMC. Zhang, a seasoned military leader, is said to have the backing of senior party figures aligned with former President Hu Jintao’s reformist faction.

As Xi’s ideological dominance fades, intelligence inputs indicate that Wang Yang, a known technocrat and reform advocate, is being positioned as a potential future leader. Wang, who previously served as Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, has remained a prominent figure within the party and is now being quietly groomed for a larger role.

Crucially, intelligence agencies have noted the decreasing prominence of “Xi Jinping Thought” in state propaganda, and the gradual re-emergence of sidelined senior officials — a possible indicator of a recalibration of the CCP’s internal power structure. Additionally, state media’s notable silence on Xi’s activities during his recent absence has further fueled speculation of a strategic downgrading.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy continues to falter, marked by soaring youth unemployment at 15%, a sluggish real estate sector, and underperformance in semiconductor innovation programmes, which were once central to Xi’s “Made in China 2025” agenda.

According to top Indian intelligence sources, such internal fragility has historically translated into external assertiveness, particularly against India. Recent changes in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Western Theatre Command — including multiple reshuffles since late 2024 — suggest that Chinese field commanders may seek to escalate tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh, either to demonstrate loyalty or to divert attention from domestic challenges.

Sources also draw parallels with past Chinese behavior. In 2012, amid the Bo Xilai political crisis, China intensified its activities in the South China Sea. In 2020, facing internal pressures due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing adopted an aggressive posture in Eastern Ladakh, leading to deadly border skirmishes.

There is growing concern that similar patterns may resurface. Intelligence reports warn of a possible surge in cyberattacks targeting Indian infrastructure, alongside intensified disinformation campaigns aimed at destabilizing India's internal landscape. Moreover, Beijing could ramp up efforts to obstruct Indian initiatives at the United Nations Security Council and increase its naval deployments in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) to reassert strategic dominance.

The evolving internal dynamics in Beijing are being closely monitored by Indian security agencies and foreign policy strategists, given their potential to reshape regional security calculations in the months ahead.