Shaheen-III Missile Test Failure Raises Alarming Questions on Pakistan’s Strategic Readiness and Regional Stability

 Islamabad | July 22, 2025 — Pakistan’s ballistic missile ambitions suffered a serious blow this week following the high-profile failure of a test launch of its Shaheen-III missile—an event that has sparked concerns across national and international circles about the reliability of Pakistan’s missile program and the safety of civilian populations.

The incident, which occurred near critical infrastructure and within close proximity to populated areas, has raised renewed alarm over technical standards, strategic risk management, and the broader geopolitical balance in South Asia.

A Strategic Pillar Undermined

The Shaheen-III missile, developed by Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) in collaboration with the National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM), is a cornerstone of the country’s strategic deterrence. With a declared range of 2,750 kilometers and the ability to deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads, the missile was intended to reinforce Pakistan’s deterrence posture—particularly as a counterweight to India’s expanding missile capabilities.

The missile’s capacity to target locations deep within the Indian mainland, including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, places it among Pakistan’s most advanced and far-reaching delivery systems. However, Tuesday’s failed test has cast doubt over the system’s operational reliability.

The Incident: A Close Call

According to credible reports, the Shaheen-III was launched from the Dera Ghazi Khan region in Punjab but veered off course shortly after liftoff. The missile ultimately crashed in the Matt area of Dera Bugti district, Balochistan—approximately 500 meters from civilian settlements and alarmingly near a major nuclear facility.

Local residents described hearing a powerful explosion near the Loop Seharani Levies Station, with shockwaves felt up to 50 kilometers away. Panic ensued in nearby villages, with reports of spontaneous evacuations and widespread fear of a potential nuclear-related catastrophe. Videos and images of the aftermath quickly circulated on social media, amplifying public anxiety.

Official Silence and Public Concern

Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) acknowledged the test in a terse statement, asserting that all safety protocols had been followed. However, the communication lacked specifics on the cause of the failure, environmental consequences, or measures taken in response. This lack of transparency has drawn criticism from defense analysts and civil society alike.

Experts argue that the opacity surrounding such incidents erodes public trust and underscores systemic weaknesses in risk communication and strategic governance. “Strategic capability must be matched with strategic responsibility,” one regional analyst noted.

Safety, Oversight, and the Nuclear Factor

The crash site’s proximity to a nuclear installation has raised profound questions about site selection, testing protocols, and oversight mechanisms. Balochistan, already a politically sensitive province, is home to critical infrastructure and restive communities. The test failure, therefore, risks not only technical fallout but also political ramifications in a region long wary of federal oversight.

While there were no immediate reports of casualties, the blast’s force and its potential implications for nuclear safety highlight the high stakes involved in missile testing in or near inhabited zones.

A Pattern of Failures?

This is not the first time Pakistan’s missile program has experienced such setbacks. Defense sources indicate that previous Shaheen-III tests—including some in 2023—also encountered malfunctions or near-miss incidents involving sensitive military infrastructure.

The recurring nature of such failures raises uncomfortable questions about the missile’s technical maturity and whether it can be reliably deployed in a crisis. These technical inconsistencies are particularly troubling given the weapon’s central role in Pakistan’s strategic deterrence framework.

International Repercussions and U.S. Scrutiny

The timing of the failure is notable. It comes just months after the United States imposed sanctions in December 2024 on Pakistani entities linked to missile development, citing proliferation risks and regional instability.

The latest test failure is likely to reinforce Washington’s concerns, adding weight to the argument that Pakistan’s missile program lacks adequate controls and oversight. With non-proliferation increasingly at the center of global diplomacy, Islamabad may now find itself under renewed pressure to improve transparency and adopt internationally accepted safety norms.

Strategic Implications for South Asia

The Shaheen-III is designed to ensure that all major Indian cities, as well as other regional targets, remain within Pakistan’s strategic reach. Its failure, therefore, has implications that go well beyond Pakistan’s borders. In a region marked by long-standing hostility and nuclear brinkmanship, questions over the reliability of deterrent systems carry real risks.

Moreover, any perceived instability in command-and-control structures—or the technical reliability of delivery systems—could raise the risk of miscalculation during times of heightened tension.

Conclusion: A Call for Responsible Stewardship

The July 22 test failure underscores a broader need for strategic accountability and robust safety standards in the development and deployment of high-risk defense technologies. While Pakistan continues to modernize its missile arsenal, the international community and regional observers will be watching closely for signs of reform in testing protocols, transparency, and oversight.

As the geopolitical climate in South Asia remains fragile, the latest incident serves as a stark reminder that technological capability, without operational reliability and accountability, poses a danger not only to national security but also to regional peace.