Putin Unlikely to Yield to Trump’s Sanctions Ultimatum as Ukraine War Goals Take Priority

Moscow/Washington, August 5: Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to reject a looming U.S. sanctions ultimatum set by President Donald Trump, as the Kremlin remains committed to its objective of seizing full control of four Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—according to sources close to the Russian leadership.

President Trump has threatened sweeping new sanctions against Russia and 100% tariffs on nations that continue purchasing Russian oil—chiefly China and India—unless Moscow agrees to a ceasefire in its ongoing war in Ukraine. However, sources familiar with Kremlin deliberations told Reuters that Putin is unmoved by the threats, convinced that Russia holds the upper hand and that additional U.S. sanctions will have limited impact after three-and-a-half years of existing economic penalties.

“Putin does not wish to antagonize Trump,” said one Kremlin insider, “but his strategic priorities take precedence. He believes achieving control over the four regions is essential before any peace talks can hold meaning.”

While acknowledging concern over deteriorating relations with Washington, Putin remains focused on military objectives. A source noted that the Russian leader views this moment—amid reported territorial gains—as inappropriate for ending hostilities. “Neither the military nor the public would understand if he halted operations now,” the individual added.

Diplomatic Overtures or Symbolism?

Moscow has held three rounds of negotiations with Kyiv since May, but insiders suggest these discussions serve more to reassure the West, particularly Washington, that Russia is not abandoning diplomacy. While the Kremlin has characterized the talks as “positive,” substantive progress remains elusive, limited mainly to humanitarian exchanges.

Putin’s conditions for peace remain firm: full Ukrainian withdrawal from the contested regions, Kyiv's acceptance of neutral status, and significant limitations on Ukraine’s military capabilities—all terms flatly rejected by Ukrainian officials.

Nonetheless, in a potential signal of diplomatic maneuvering, Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is reportedly set to visit Moscow this week. His visit follows an intensification in rhetoric between the two governments, including renewed fears over the risk of nuclear escalation.

“President Trump is committed to ending the bloodshed,” said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly. “This is why he’s strengthening NATO allies with U.S. arms and threatening sanctions to force a ceasefire.”

A War of Attrition and Legacies

Putin’s military aims continue despite mounting international pressure. Analysts say the Kremlin leader has tied his political legacy to the Ukraine war. “Putin sees himself within a historical continuum of Russian leaders who stood against the West to protect national interests,” said James Rodgers, author of the forthcoming The Return of Russia. “To him, the war is not just strategy—it’s identity.”

Russia’s summer offensive has yielded slow but measurable progress. According to Black Bird Group, a Finnish military analysis firm, Russia captured 502 square kilometers in July alone—the largest monthly gain in 2025. In total, Russian forces now control approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory.

Still, Western defense analysts emphasize the incremental nature of these gains. A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington notes that since early 2024, Russia has added just 5,000 square kilometers—less than 1% of Ukraine’s overall landmass—despite high casualties and logistical constraints.

Russian military planners reportedly told Putin that Ukraine’s defensive lines could collapse within the next two to three months, fueling Kremlin confidence that final war objectives are within reach.

Trump’s Pressure Campaign Faces Doubts

While Trump’s threats have unsettled Moscow, Kremlin insiders reportedly doubt whether the U.S. president will follow through. “He has made threats before and then walked them back,” said one source. “There’s skepticism about his consistency.”

Moscow also believes that major Russian oil buyers—particularly China—are unlikely to comply with Trump’s directives. Some officials warn that harsh sanctions could backfire, driving up global oil prices and further destabilizing energy markets.

Despite severe sanctions already in place—including the freezing of $300 billion in Russian central bank assets and a 63% drop in foreign direct investment—Russia's wartime production continues, bolstered by military imports from North Korea and dual-use components from China.

Trump himself has acknowledged Russia’s capacity to evade sanctions, stating over the weekend, “They’re wily characters and they’ve gotten pretty good at avoiding sanctions—we’ll see what happens.”

A Missed Opportunity for Peace?

One Kremlin source disclosed that earlier this year, the U.S. had offered a sweeping diplomatic package in exchange for a ceasefire: the removal of all sanctions, formal recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and acceptance of Russian control over occupied Ukrainian territories post-2022.

“It was a fantastic chance,” the source said. “But ending a war is far harder than starting one.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to appeal for greater international pressure. Following a recent airstrike that killed 31 civilians in Kyiv—including five children—Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko called for “maximum pressure” on Moscow, characterizing the strike as Russia’s answer to Trump’s ultimatum.

With battlefield dynamics shifting and geopolitical stakes rising, the coming days may prove critical in determining whether diplomacy prevails—or whether the conflict deepens further.