Russia Faces Troubling Outlook as Pardoned Convicts and War Veterans Return Home

For convicted wife-killer Azamat Iskaliyev, Russia’s war in Ukraine was a one-way ticket out of prison. The 37-year-old, jailed for nine years in 2021 for fatally stabbing his wife after she sought a divorce, had served less than a third of his sentence when he was freed and pardoned in exchange for military service.

After surviving his deployment, Iskaliyev returned to civilian life—only to commit another brutal killing. In October 2023, he murdered an ex-girlfriend, stabbing her more than 60 times at her workplace after she rejected him. In July this year, he was sentenced to more than 19 years in a maximum-security penal colony.

His case, reconstructed from Saratov court documents and local media, underscores the societal risks Russia may face as hundreds of thousands of war veterans, including pardoned convicts, eventually return home.

“Perhaps over 1.5 million Russian men and women had participated in the war as of early 2025,” said Mark Galeotti, a British expert on Russia, warning of the “psychological impacts of war” that could destabilise Russian society.

Fears at the Kremlin

Sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters that President Vladimir Putin sees mass demobilisation as a potential threat to the political system he has built, drawing lessons from the fallout of the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan, when disillusioned veterans fuelled organised crime in the 1990s.

The Kremlin aims to prevent such unrest by offering returning fighters prestigious roles in politics and public life. Veterans have already been appointed to regional governments, the upper house of parliament, and even leadership positions in Putin’s youth movement, the Movement of the First.

Economic and Social Strains

Analysts warn that many returning soldiers will struggle to adapt. In Ukraine, a Moscow recruit can earn 5.2 million roubles ($65,000) in a year, including a signing bonus nearly equivalent to the capital’s annual average salary. Once home, few will find comparable incomes, creating frustration and resentment.

Adding to the risks, independent outlet Verstka estimated last year that nearly 500 civilians had been killed or gravely injured by returning veterans. Although Reuters could not verify the figures, the trend highlights mounting concerns.

Convicts on the Battlefield

Russia has deployed an estimated 120,000–180,000 convicts since 2022, according to prison and intelligence sources. Initially, some were released after six months of service, but rules were tightened in 2023, requiring them to fight until the war’s end.

Iskaliyev’s story reflects the dangers of early releases: violent offenders returning to society without rehabilitation.

Echoes of the Past, But a Different Context

Comparisons are being drawn with the “Afgantsy”, veterans of the Soviet-Afghan war, many of whom suffered post-traumatic stress and turned to crime. Yet Kremlin officials insist the current political and security apparatus is far stronger than in the chaotic early 1990s.

Still, scholars caution that the war in Ukraine is far bloodier. “We’re talking about a much more bitter conflict,” said Gregory Feifer, author of The Great Gamble, noting the far higher casualty rates compared to Afghanistan.

Galeotti warned: “I don’t think it will reach the pitch of the wild 90s, but with so many more ‘Ukraintsy’ compared to ‘Afgantsy’, I do fear a real time of troubles.”