As Bangladesh heads to the polls on February 12 — its first national election since the student-led uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 — India is watching developments with unusual intensity.
The scale of the exercise is formidable. Nearly 130 million registered voters are expected to cast their ballots at around 43,000 polling stations across the country. The elections are being conducted under an interim administration led by Nobel laureate economist Muhammad Yunus, marking a pivotal moment in Bangladesh’s political trajectory.
To understand why New Delhi is so closely invested in the outcome, it is necessary to revisit the historical foundations — and fault lines — of the India-Bangladesh relationship.
A Shared and Turbulent History
The relationship between the two nations is rooted in the 1947 Partition of British India. The Muslim-majority eastern region of Bengal became East Pakistan, separated from West Pakistan by more than 1,600 kilometres of Indian territory. The arrangement was politically and culturally fragile. Linguistic and economic disparities deepened tensions through the 1950s and 1960s.
In 1970, the Awami League led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman won Pakistan’s general election, but the West Pakistani establishment refused to transfer power. The ensuing military crackdown triggered one of South Asia’s most violent chapters.
Faced with an influx of nearly 10 million refugees into West Bengal, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi intervened militarily in December 1971. Within two weeks, Pakistani forces surrendered in Dhaka. Bangladesh emerged as an independent nation on December 16, 1971, with India becoming the first country to recognise it.
Yet instability followed. Mujibur Rahman was assassinated in 1975 in a military coup. Major General Ziaur Rahman rose to power, later founding the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), before being assassinated in 1981. His wife, Khaleda Zia, became a dominant political figure as democracy returned in the 1990s. Their son, Tarique Rahman, now leads the BNP.
Sheikh Hasina, Mujib’s daughter, later governed for extended periods but faced mounting allegations of authoritarianism. Her removal in the 2024 uprising has reshaped Bangladesh’s political landscape. Now residing in India, she has been convicted in absentia by Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal for alleged crimes against humanity — charges that have further complicated bilateral relations.
Textbooks in Bangladesh have reportedly been revised to downplay Sheikh Mujib’s role and India’s contribution to the 1971 liberation struggle — another sensitive point for New Delhi.
Electoral Tides and Bilateral Tensions
India-Bangladesh relations have historically ebbed and flowed with electoral outcomes. Hasina’s Awami League maintained close ties with India, culminating in landmark achievements such as the 2015 Land Boundary Agreement, which resolved a decades-old enclave dispute. Trade expanded, India extended multi-billion-dollar credit lines, and supplied 500 megawatts of electricity daily. Cooperation on counter-terrorism was particularly significant.
That stability unraveled in July 2024, when student protests against a quota system for descendants of 1971 freedom fighters escalated into a nationwide movement against Hasina’s rule. Security forces responded with lethal force; reports estimate that around 1,400 people were killed.
On August 5, 2024, amid massive protests, Hasina fled to India. Her extradition has since become a contentious campaign issue in Bangladesh, with the BNP pressing for her return. India’s refusal to extradite her has added strain to diplomatic ties.
Minority Violence and Diplomatic Strain
The period following Hasina’s departure saw renewed concerns over violence against religious minorities, particularly Hindus. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council documented more than 2,000 incidents of communal violence between August and December 2024. India’s government told Parliament that over 2,400 minority-related incidents were reported between August 2024 and March 2025.
One widely reported case involved the killing of a 27-year-old Hindu garment worker accused of blasphemy. India has suggested there is a “disturbing pattern” of recurring attacks, while Bangladesh has accused India of exaggerating incidents to fuel anti-Bangladesh sentiment.
The diplomatic chill has extended into cultural and sporting arenas. Bangladesh boycotted events co-hosted by India, while Pakistan has moved to strengthen ties with Dhaka, including the resumption of direct flights and discussions of possible defence cooperation.
Campaign Dynamics: India as an Electoral Issue
With the Awami League’s electoral activities suspended, around 60 parties are contesting the polls. The BNP, now led by Tarique Rahman following the death of Khaleda Zia, has emerged as a principal contender.
Unveiling a 51-point manifesto under the slogan “Bangladesh Before All,” Rahman emphasised justice, economic revival, and governance reforms. The document addresses contentious issues such as border shootings, infiltration, and the long-pending Teesta water-sharing agreement with India, while also committing to pragmatic and mutually beneficial ties with neighbouring countries.
Jamaat-e-Islami, once banned, has re-entered electoral politics and released a 26-point manifesto. Notably, it pledged cooperative relations with neighbouring countries — explicitly naming India among them — though it emphasised strengthening ties with the Muslim world. The party is contesting in alliance with the National Citizen Party, formed by leaders of the 2024 protests.
A recent survey suggests a tight race, with the BNP and the Jamaat-led alliance closely matched. A post-election coalition appears plausible.
India’s Diplomatic Reset
Recognising shifting political realities, New Delhi has recalibrated its outreach. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has met Tarique Rahman in Dhaka and conveyed a personal letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India’s High Commissioner in Dhaka has also engaged with BNP leadership.
For years, India regarded the BNP — particularly during its earlier alliance with Jamaat — with suspicion. But geopolitical pragmatism now appears to be guiding policy.
A Young Electorate, A Defining Moment
Nearly 44% of Bangladesh’s registered voters are between 18 and 37 years old. Reports suggest that the electorate is focused less on historical grievances and more on restoring democratic governance, reviving the garment-export economy, and recalibrating relations with India.
For both nations — bound by geography, history, and economic interdependence — the February 12 vote is more than an election. It is a defining moment that could determine whether ties stabilise through pragmatic engagement or drift further into uncertainty.
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